Climate change, demographic pressures and global sustainability

• Published in: Economics and human biology Vol. 33; pp. 149 - 154
• Main Author: Bhargava, Alok
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Netherlands Elsevier B.V 01.05.2019
• Subjects: Agricultural production; Agriculture; Birth Rate; Climate Change; Demography - statistics & numerical data; Developing Countries; Diet; Fertility; Food Supply; Global warming; Groundwater depletion; Humans; India; Maximum likelihood estimation; Migration; Population Dynamics; Remote sensing data; Sustainable development; Water Supply; India; Maximum likelihood estimation; Q5; Migration; Remote sensing data; I15; J13; Sustainable development; Groundwater depletion; O13; C5; Fertility; Agricultural production; Global warming
• ISSN: 1570-677X; 1873-6130
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2019.02.007

•Climate change research needs to better integrate the role of population growth in developing countries.•Agricultural resources are critical for maintaining food supplies, diet quality, and population health.•Data on well depths provide information on groundwater availability for agricultural decisions.•Remote sensing information on groundwater levels is widely available but at low resolutions.•Analyses of data on well depths and from remote sensing provide insights for managing climatic risks.•High fertility rates in developing countries are associated with greater groundwater depletion and can increase emigration especially of highly educated individuals. This article emphasizes the need for broader approaches for formulating policies for mitigating the effects of climate change especially in the contexts of agricultural decisions, and population health and migration. Constraints imposed by rapid population growth in developing countries for achievement of Sustainable Development Goals are discussed and evidence is presented on “unwanted” fertility from India. Second, comparisons are made for India during 2002–2016 for average well depths in 495 districts and terrestrial water storage anomalies assessed via GRACE satellites for 274 1° × 1° grids using estimated parameters from dynamic random effects models. Lastly, migration patterns especially of the highly educated from 39 sending countries to OECD countries during 2000–2010 are analyzed using dynamic random effects models and total fertility rates were significantly associated with higher migration rates for the highly educated. Implications of the empirical evidence for enhancing global sustainability are discussed.