An economic and environmental assessment of future electricity generation mixes in Japan – an assessment using the E3MG macro-econometric model
In this paper we consider future options for Japanese energy and climate policy. We assess the economic and environmental impacts of changing the share of electricity generated by nuclear power and varying the mid-term GHG targets. The quantitative approach we use is based on the global macro-econom...
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Published in | Energy policy Vol. 67; pp. 243 - 254 |
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Main Authors | , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
Kidlington
Elsevier Ltd
01.04.2014
Elsevier Elsevier Science Ltd |
Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
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Summary: | In this paper we consider future options for Japanese energy and climate policy. We assess the economic and environmental impacts of changing the share of electricity generated by nuclear power and varying the mid-term GHG targets. The quantitative approach we use is based on the global macro-econometric E3MG model.
Our analysis reveals that the cost of denuclearisation to Japanese GDP is close to zero, and for employment the impact is slightly positive. Our results also show a double-dividend effect if (revenue-neutral) carbon taxes are levied in order to meet the GHG reduction targets, and this double-dividend effect is largest in the scenarios without nuclear power. However, our analysis suggests that a very high carbon tax rate would have to be imposed in order to achieve a 25% reduction in GHG emissions in 2020 (compared to 1990 levels) while simultaneously phasing out nuclear power.
•We modelled 12 scenarios for Japan with different shares for nuclear power and different emission targets.•The results showed that phasing out nuclear power would have at most a very small reduction in GDP.•If a carbon tax with revenue recycling is applied, there could be an increase in GDP.•But the carbon price required to meet Japan's 25% emission reduction target is very high if the share of nuclear power is reduced. |
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Bibliography: | ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 ObjectType-Article-2 ObjectType-Feature-1 |
ISSN: | 0301-4215 1873-6777 |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.12.018 |