Defying the Rally During COVID‐19 Pandemic: A Regression Discontinuity Approach

• Published in: Social science quarterly Vol. 101; no. 5; pp. 1979 - 1994
• Main Authors: Shino, Enrijeta, Binder, Michael
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.09.2020; John Wiley and Sons Inc
• Subjects: Covid Research; COVID-19; Delegation; Discontinuity; Governors; Original; Pandemics; Partisanship; Presidents; Public officials; Public opinion; Voters
• ISSN: 0038-4941; 1540-6237
• DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.12844

Objective Do people set aside their partisan differences and rally around elected officials during a pandemic? President Trump's delegation of responsibility to the states during the COVID‐19 pandemic placed governors on the frontlines of the battle; some have shined and garnered positive national attention, others have wilted under the pressure of the national spotlight. Methods We use regression discontinuity design and exploit a discontinuity in the state's political events to assess the support of a governor's response to the pandemic. Results Using survey data from Florida's registered voters, we find that Governor DeSantis's approval dropped by 7 percentage points following his “Safer at Home” order press conference on April 1. Conclusion Our results suggest that under certain circumstances partisanship can blunt a “rally around the flag” effect. This finding provides context to understanding when and under which circumstances elected officials can expect increases (or decreases) in public support.