Long-term solar activity studies using microwave imaging observations and prediction for cycle 25

• Published in: Journal of atmospheric and solar-terrestrial physics Vol. 176; pp. 26 - 33
• Main Authors: Gopalswamy, N., Mӓkelӓ, P., Yashiro, S., Akiyama, S.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Goddard Space Flight Center Elsevier Ltd 01.09.2018; Elsevier
• Subjects: Babcock-Leighton mechanism; Polar microwave brightness; Solar Physics; Solar polarity reversal; Solar-cycle prediction; Polar microwave brightness; Solar polarity reversal; Babcock-Leighton mechanism; Solar-cycle prediction; solar polarity reversal; polar microwave brightness; solar-cycle prediction
• ISSN: 1364-6826; 1879-1824
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2018.04.005

We use microwave imaging observations from the Nobeyama Radioheliograph at 17 GHz for long-term studies of solar activity. In particular, we use the polar and low-latitude brightness temperatures as proxies to the polar and active-region magnetic fields, respectively. We also use the locations of prominence eruptions as a proxy to the filament locations to study their time variation. We show that the polar microwave brightness temperature is highly correlated with the polar magnetic field strength and the fast solar wind speed. We also show that the polar microwave brightness in one solar cycle is correlated with the low latitude brightness with a lag of about half a solar cycle. We use this correlation to predict the strength of the solar cycle 25: the smoothed sunspot numbers in the southern and northern hemispheres can be predicted as 89 and 59, respectively. These values indicate that cycle 25 will not be too different from cycle 24 in its strength. We also combined the rush-to-the-pole data from Nobeyama prominences with historical data going back to 1860 to study the north-south asymmetry of sign reversal at solar poles. We find that the reversal asymmetry has a quasi-periodicity of 3–5 cycles. •The Polar microwave brightness is a good proxy of the solar polar field strength.•The polar microwave brightness of cycle n indicates the strength of cycle n+1.•The strength of cycle 25 will be not too different from that of cycle 24.•Polar microwave brightness has a good correlation with the speed of fast solar wind.•North-south asymmetry of solar polar reversal has a quasi-periodicity of 3–5 cycles.