Invasive species distribution models - how violating the equilibrium assumption can create new insights

• Published in: Global ecology and biogeography Vol. 21; no. 11; pp. 1126 - 1136
• Main Authors: Gallien, Laure, Douzet, Rolland, Pratte, Steve, Zimmermann, Niklaus E., Thuiller, Wilfried
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford, UK Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.11.2012; Blackwell Publishing; Blackwell; Wiley Subscription Services, Inc
• Subjects: Adaptation; Alps region; Animal and plant ecology; Animal, plant and microbial ecology; Biogeography; Biological and medical sciences; biological invasions; colonization; Ecological balance; Ecological invasion; Ecological modeling; ecological niche; Ecological niches; Equilibrium; France; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; General aspects; invasion stage; Invasive species; MACROECOLOGICAL METHODS; model validation; Modeling; niches; non-native plant species; Nonnative species; Plants; Population ecology; prediction; risk; space and time; spatial scale; Species; Synecology; France, Alps Mts; France; Alps region; Introduced species; Biological invasion; non-native plant species; Biogeography; Ecology; Spatial scale; biological invasions; invasion stage; Invasive species; Spatial distribution; Geographic distribution; Ecological niche; Models; equilibrium; Distribution range; Colonization; Adaptation
• ISSN: 1466-822X; 1466-8238; 1466-822X
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2012.00768.x

Aim: Two core assumptions of species distribution models (SDMs) do not hold when modelling invasive species. Invasives are not in equilibrium with their environment and niche quantification and transferability in space and time are limited. Here, we test whether combining global- and regional-scale data in a novel framework can overcome these limitations. Beyond simply improving regional niche modelling of non-native species, the framework also makes use of the violation of regional equilibrium assumptions, and aims at estimating the stage of invasion, range filling and risk of spread in the near future for 27 invasive species in the French Alps. Innovation: For each invader we built three sets of SDMs using a committee averaging method: one global model and two regional models (a conventional model and one using the global model output to weight pseudo-absences). Model performances were compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, the true skill statistic, sensitivity and specificity scores. Then, we extracted the predictions for observed presences and compared them to global and regional models. This comparison made it possible to identify whether invasive species were observed within or outside of their regional and global niches. Main conclusions: This study provides a novel methodological framework for improving the regional modelling of invasive species, where the use of a global model output to weight pseudo-absences in a regional model significantly improved the predictive performance of regional SDMs. Additionally, the comparison of the global and regional model outputs revealed distinct patterns of niche estimates and range filling among the species. These differences allowed us to draw conclusions about the stage of invasion and the risk of spread in the near future, which both correspond to experts' expectations. This framework can be easily applied to a large number of species and is therefore useful for control of biological invasions and eradication planning.