Learning to Trust Flu Shots: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the 2009 Swine Flu Pandemic

This paper studies consumer learning in influenza vaccination decisions. We examine consumer learning in influenza vaccine demand within a reduced form instrumental variable framework that exploits differences in risk characteristics of different influenza viruses as a natural experiment to distingu...

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Published inHealth economics Vol. 25; no. 9; pp. 1148 - 1162
Main Authors Maurer, Jürgen, Harris, Katherine M.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published England Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.09.2016
Wiley Periodicals Inc
Subjects
Adult
Aged
Economic models
Female
Health Personnel
Humans
Immunization
Influenza
Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype - isolation & purification
influenza vaccination
Influenza Vaccines - administration & dosage
Influenza Vaccines - immunology
Influenza, Human - epidemiology
Influenza, Human - prevention & control
Learning
Long term
Male
Middle Aged
Pandemics
Pandemics - prevention & control
Patient Acceptance of Health Care
pharmaceutical demand
preventive care
Public Health
Quasi-experimental methods
Swine flu
Trust
Uptake
Vaccination - statistics & numerical data
Vaccines
Viruses
learning
pharmaceutical demand
influenza vaccination
preventive care
public health
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Summary:This paper studies consumer learning in influenza vaccination decisions. We examine consumer learning in influenza vaccine demand within a reduced form instrumental variable framework that exploits differences in risk characteristics of different influenza viruses as a natural experiment to distinguish the effects of learning based on previous influenza vaccination experiences from unobserved heterogeneity. The emergence of a new virus strain (influenza A H1N1/09) during the 2009 ‘Swine flu’ pandemic resulted in two different vaccines being recommended for distinct population subgroups with some people, who were not usually targeted by seasonal vaccination programs, being specifically recommended for the new Swine flu vaccine. We use these differences in vaccination targeting to construct instrumental variables for estimating the effect of past influenza vaccination experiences on the demand for pandemic vaccine. We find large causal effects of previous seasonal vaccination on pandemic vaccination. Causal effects of past influenza vaccination experiences on perceived vaccination safety are likely to be an important pathway linking past vaccination experiences with future vaccine uptake. Our results suggest a significant role of learning in vaccination decisions. Current efforts to expand seasonal vaccination may thus have potentially important long‐term effects on future influenza vaccination levels and pandemic preparedness. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Bibliography:ark:/67375/WNG-9WM01H5M-8
istex:C31959E8C890B158A732C0B2F686DF4D5D0828D2
ArticleID:HEC3379
The survey data used in this study was collected under contract with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK). GSK had no role in the design, management, analysis or interpretation of these data, and had no role in the preparation, review or approval of the manuscript. The opinions expressed here are solely those of the authors and do not represent those of GSK. The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare and have no financial disclosures. The authors should like to thank seminar participants at the RAND Corporation, University of Zurich, University of Rotterdam, University of Tilburg, DIW Berlin, IEMS Lausanne, the Health Economics Section of the German Economic Association, the Empirical Health Economics Workshop in Munich, the Health Economics Workshop in Grindelwald, the Economics of Disease Workshop in Darmstadt as well as Jerôme Adda, Mark Dusheiko, Simona Grassi, Peter Haan, Rafael Lalive, Owen O'Donnell, Tom van Ourti, Martin Salm and Joachim Winter for useful comments and suggestions that greatly improved the paper. All errors are our own responsibility.
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SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
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ISSN:1057-9230
1099-1050
DOI:10.1002/hec.3379