ENSO prediction one year in advance using western North Pacific sea surface temperatures

• Published in: Geophysical research letters Vol. 39; no. 5
• Main Authors: Wang, Shih-Yu, L'Heureux, Michelle, Chia, Hsin-Hsing
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Washington, DC Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.03.2012; American Geophysical Union; John Wiley & Sons, Inc
• Subjects: Analogies; Anomalies; Atmospheric sciences; Dipoles; Earth sciences; Earth, ocean, space; El Nino; ENSO; Exact sciences and technology; Geophysics; interannual; Kelvin waves; Marine; Oceanography; Oscillations; Physical oceanography; prediction; Sea surface temperature; Southern Oscillation; SST; Winter; Pacific Ocean; Northeast Pacific; Northwest Pacific; Asia; Equatorial Pacific; North Pacific; INW, Asia; IS, Tropical Pacific; IN, North Pacific; trend-surface analysis; North Pacific Oscillation; Predictor; Sea surface temperature; variability; subtropical zone; anomalies; Kelvin wave; El Nino; Winter; winds; Southern oscillation; Dipole; prediction; Boreal
• ISSN: 0094-8276; 1944-8007
• DOI: 10.1029/2012GL050909

We present evidence that the de‐trended, boreal winter sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the western North Pacific (WNP) are a skillful predictor for the development of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by the following winter. The WNP shares some similarities with the Meridional Mode (MM) located in the subtropical central and eastern North Pacific: both are linked to off‐equatorial SSTA and low‐level wind anomalies, and both appear to be strongly related to wintertime variability in the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO). However, in contrast with the MM, the WNP is associated with an opposite‐signed SSTA dipole located off southeastern Asia and in the western tropical Pacific, which is accompanied by equatorial winds that may influence the level of oceanic Kelvin wave activity that precedes ENSO events. Key Points Identification of the western North Pacific (WNP) region for SSTA Winter SSTA in WNP is a skillful predictor for ENSO development WNP SSTA initiates equatorial winds that influence oceanic Kelvin waves