China can be self-sufficient in maize production by 2030 with optimal crop management

• Published in: Nature communications Vol. 14; no. 1; pp. 2637 - 11
• Main Authors: Luo, Ning, Meng, Qingfeng, Feng, Puyu, Qu, Ziren, Yu, Yonghong, Liu, De Li, Müller, Christoph, Wang, Pu
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 06.05.2023; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: 631/449/2668; 704/158/2456; 706/1143; Agricultural production; Agriculture - methods; Animal Feed; China; Climate Change; Climate effects; Corn; Crop management; Crop Production; Crop yield; Crops, Agricultural; Economic development; Economics; Feeds; Field tests; Food security; Humanities and Social Sciences; Machine learning; multidisciplinary; Planting; Planting density; Population growth; Radiative forcing; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Self sufficiency; Soil; Soil improvement; Soil management; Soils; Zea mays; China
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38355-2

Population growth and economic development in China has increased the demand for food and animal feed, raising questions regarding China’s future maize production self-sufficiency. Here, we address this challenge by combining data-driven projections with a machine learning method on data from 402 stations, with data from 87 field experiments across China. Current maize yield would be roughly doubled with the implementation of optimal planting density and management. In the 2030 s, we estimate a 52% yield improvement through dense planting and soil improvement under a high-end climate forcing Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP585), compared with a historical climate trend. Based on our results, yield gains from soil improvement outweigh the adverse effects of climate change. This implies that China can be self-sufficient in maize by using current cropping areas. Our results challenge the view of yield stagnation in most global areas and provide an example of how food security can be achieved with optimal crop-soil management under future climate change scenarios. Population growth in China has increased the demand for food. Combining data-driven projections with field experiments, Luo et al. find that China can achieve self-sufficiency in maize production by 2030 implementation of optimal planting density and management without expanding cropping areas.