Projected increase in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis from 2015 to 2040

• Published in: Nature communications Vol. 7; no. 1; p. 12408
• Main Authors: Arthur, Karissa C, Calvo, Andrea, Price, T Ryan, Geiger, Joshua T, Chiò, Adriano, Traynor, Bryan J
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Nature Publishing Group 11.08.2016; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: Age Distribution; Aged; Aging; Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis; Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis - diagnosis; Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis - epidemiology; Developing countries; Disease; Female; Global Health; Health care policy; Humans; Incidence; Industrialized nations; LDCs; Male; Middle Aged; Neuromuscular diseases; Neurosciences; Population; Prevalence; New Zealand; Iran; United States > US; Uruguay; China; Japan; Europe; Taiwan; Italy; Serbia; Libya; Maryland
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/ncomms12408

Although amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is relatively rare, the socioeconomic significance of the disease is extensive. It is therefore vital to project the epidemiologic trend of ALS. To date, there have been few published studies attempting to estimate the number and distribution of ALS cases in the upcoming years. Here we show that the number of ALS cases across the globe will increase from 222,801 in 2015 to 376,674 in 2040, representing an increase of 69%. This increase is predominantly due to ageing of the population, particularly among developing nations. This projection is likely an underestimate due to improving healthcare and economic conditions. The results should be used to inform healthcare policy to more efficiently allocate healthcare resources.