No evidence of sustained nonzoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi transmission in Malaysia from modelling malaria case data
Reported incidence of the zoonotic malaria Plasmodium knowlesi has markedly increased across Southeast Asia and threatens malaria elimination. Nonzoonotic transmission of P. knowlesi has been experimentally demonstrated, but it remains unknown whether nonzoonotic transmission is contributing to incr...
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Published in | Nature communications Vol. 14; no. 1; p. 2945 |
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Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
London
Nature Publishing Group UK
01.06.2023
Nature Publishing Group Nature Portfolio |
Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
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Summary: | Reported incidence of the zoonotic malaria
Plasmodium knowlesi
has markedly increased across Southeast Asia and threatens malaria elimination. Nonzoonotic transmission of
P. knowlesi
has been experimentally demonstrated, but it remains unknown whether nonzoonotic transmission is contributing to increases in
P. knowlesi
cases. Here, we adapt model-based inference methods to estimate
R
C
, individual case reproductive numbers, for
P. knowlesi
,
P. falciparum
and
P. vivax
human cases in Malaysia from 2012–2020 (n = 32,635). Best fitting models for
P. knowlesi
showed subcritical transmission (
R
C
< 1) consistent with a large reservoir of unobserved infection sources, indicating
P. knowlesi
remains a primarily zoonotic infection. In contrast, sustained transmission (
R
C
> 1) was estimated historically for
P. falciparum
and
P. vivax
, with declines in
R
C
estimates observed over time consistent with local elimination. Together, this suggests sustained nonzoonotic
P. knowlesi
transmission is highly unlikely and that new approaches are urgently needed to control spillover risks.
Plasmodium knowlesi is a zoonotic malaria parasite that can infect humans, but whether human-mosquito-human transmission occurs is not known. Here, the authors use data from Malaysia and show, through mathematical modelling, that sustained non-zoonotic transmission is unlikely to be occurring in this setting. |
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Bibliography: | ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 |
ISSN: | 2041-1723 2041-1723 |
DOI: | 10.1038/s41467-023-38476-8 |