No evidence of sustained nonzoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi transmission in Malaysia from modelling malaria case data

• Published in: Nature communications Vol. 14; no. 1; p. 2945
• Main Authors: Fornace, Kimberly M., Topazian, Hillary M., Routledge, Isobel, Asyraf, Syafie, Jelip, Jenarun, Lindblade, Kim A., Jeffree, Mohammad Saffree, Ruiz Cuenca, Pablo, Bhatt, Samir, Ahmed, Kamruddin, Ghani, Azra C., Drakeley, Chris
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 01.06.2023; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: 631/114/2397; 692/699/255/1629; 692/700/478/174; Disease transmission; Humanities and Social Sciences; Malaria; Mathematical models; multidisciplinary; Parasites; Plasmodium knowlesi; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Vector-borne diseases; Zoonoses; Malaysia
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-38476-8

Reported incidence of the zoonotic malaria Plasmodium knowlesi has markedly increased across Southeast Asia and threatens malaria elimination. Nonzoonotic transmission of P. knowlesi has been experimentally demonstrated, but it remains unknown whether nonzoonotic transmission is contributing to increases in P. knowlesi cases. Here, we adapt model-based inference methods to estimate R C , individual case reproductive numbers, for P. knowlesi , P. falciparum and P. vivax human cases in Malaysia from 2012–2020 (n = 32,635). Best fitting models for P. knowlesi showed subcritical transmission ( R C  < 1) consistent with a large reservoir of unobserved infection sources, indicating P. knowlesi remains a primarily zoonotic infection. In contrast, sustained transmission ( R C  > 1) was estimated historically for P. falciparum and P. vivax , with declines in R C estimates observed over time consistent with local elimination. Together, this suggests sustained nonzoonotic P. knowlesi transmission is highly unlikely and that new approaches are urgently needed to control spillover risks. Plasmodium knowlesi is a zoonotic malaria parasite that can infect humans, but whether human-mosquito-human transmission occurs is not known. Here, the authors use data from Malaysia and show, through mathematical modelling, that sustained non-zoonotic transmission is unlikely to be occurring in this setting.