Utilizing citizen science data to rapidly assess changing associations between wild birds and avian influenza outbreaks in poultry

• Published in: Proceedings of the Royal Society. B, Biological sciences Vol. 291; no. 2031; p. 20241713
• Main Authors: Vickers, Stephen H., Raghwani, Jayna, Banyard, Ashley C., Brown, Ian H., Fournie, Guillaume, Hill, Sarah C.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Royal Society, The 01.09.2024; The Royal Society
• Subjects: Animals; Animals, Wild; Birds; Birds - virology; Citizen Science; Disease Outbreaks; Disease Outbreaks - veterinary; Ducks; Ducks - virology; Ecology; Influenza in Birds; Influenza in Birds - epidemiology; Influenza in Birds - virology; Life Sciences; Poultry; Poultry - virology; Poultry Diseases; Poultry Diseases - epidemiology; Poultry Diseases - virology; Santé publique et épidémiologie; Seasons; United Kingdom; United Kingdom - epidemiology; United Kingdom; eBird; spillover; viral incursion; HPAIV; disease vector; health and disease and epidemiology HPAIV; Ecology Subject Areas: ecology health and disease and epidemiology HPAIV spillover viral incursion disease vector eBird; Ecology Subject Areas: ecology
• ISSN: 0962-8452; 1471-2954; 1471-2954
• DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2024.1713

High pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAIV) is a rapidly evolving virus causing significant economic and environmental harm. Wild birds are a key viral reservoir and an important source of viral incursions into animal populations, including poultry. However, we lack a thorough understanding of which species drive incursions and whether this changes over time. We explored associations between the abundances of 152 avian species and outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in poultry premises across Great Britain between October 2021 and January 2023. Spatial generalized additive models were used, with species abundance distributions sourced from eBird. Associations were investigated at the species-specific level and across species aggregations. During autumn/winter, associations were generally strongest with waterbirds such as ducks and geese; however, we also found significant associations in groups such as non-native gamebirds and rapid change in species-specific associations over time. Our results demonstrate the value of citizen science to rapidly explore wild species as potential facilitators of disease incursions into well-monitored populations, especially in regions where viral surveillance in wild species is limited. This can be a critical step towards prioritizing targeted surveillance that could inform species-specific biosecurity measures; particularly for HPAIV, which has undergone sudden shifts in host range and continues to rapidly evolve.