Solar geoengineering could redistribute malaria risk in developing countries

Solar geoengineering is often framed as a stopgap measure to decrease the magnitude, impacts, and injustice of climate change. However, the benefits or costs of geoengineering for human health are largely unknown. We project how geoengineering could impact malaria risk by comparing current transmiss...

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Published inNature communications Vol. 13; no. 1; p. 2150
Main Authors Carlson, Colin J., Colwell, Rita, Hossain, Mohammad Sharif, Rahman, Mohammed Mofizur, Robock, Alan, Ryan, Sadie J., Alam, Mohammad Shafiul, Trisos, Christopher H.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published London Nature Publishing Group UK 20.04.2022
Nature Publishing Group
Nature Portfolio
Subjects
692/699/255/1629
704/106/694/2739/2807
704/106/694/2786
Africa, Eastern
Climate Change
Developing Countries
Disease transmission
Emissions
Encroachment
Geoengineering
Greenhouse effect
Greenhouse gases
Health risks
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
LDCs
Leadership
Malaria
Malaria - epidemiology
Malaria - prevention & control
multidisciplinary
Populations
Risk
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Southern Hemisphere
Sunlight - adverse effects
Tropical environments
Vector-borne diseases
Africa, Eastern
Africa
Online AccessGet full text

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Abstract Solar geoengineering is often framed as a stopgap measure to decrease the magnitude, impacts, and injustice of climate change. However, the benefits or costs of geoengineering for human health are largely unknown. We project how geoengineering could impact malaria risk by comparing current transmission suitability and populations-at-risk under moderate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) with and without geoengineering. We show that if geoengineering deployment cools the tropics, it could help protect high elevation populations in eastern Africa from malaria encroachment, but could increase transmission in lowland sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia. Compared to extreme warming, we find that by 2070, geoengineering would nullify a projected reduction of nearly one billion people at risk of malaria. Our results indicate that geoengineering strategies designed to offset warming are not guaranteed to unilaterally improve health outcomes, and could produce regional trade-offs among Global South countries that are often excluded from geoengineering conversations. Solar geoengineering, an emergency climate intervention, could shift one billion people back into areas of malaria risk. Regional tradeoffs and potential adverse outcomes point to the need for health sector planning with Global South leadership.
AbstractList Solar geoengineering, an emergency climate intervention, could shift one billion people back into areas of malaria risk. Regional tradeoffs and potential adverse outcomes point to the need for health sector planning with Global South leadership.
Solar geoengineering is often framed as a stopgap measure to decrease the magnitude, impacts, and injustice of climate change. However, the benefits or costs of geoengineering for human health are largely unknown. We project how geoengineering could impact malaria risk by comparing current transmission suitability and populations-at-risk under moderate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) with and without geoengineering. We show that if geoengineering deployment cools the tropics, it could help protect high elevation populations in eastern Africa from malaria encroachment, but could increase transmission in lowland sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia. Compared to extreme warming, we find that by 2070, geoengineering would nullify a projected reduction of nearly one billion people at risk of malaria. Our results indicate that geoengineering strategies designed to offset warming are not guaranteed to unilaterally improve health outcomes, and could produce regional trade-offs among Global South countries that are often excluded from geoengineering conversations.Solar geoengineering, an emergency climate intervention, could shift one billion people back into areas of malaria risk. Regional tradeoffs and potential adverse outcomes point to the need for health sector planning with Global South leadership.
Solar geoengineering is often framed as a stopgap measure to decrease the magnitude, impacts, and injustice of climate change. However, the benefits or costs of geoengineering for human health are largely unknown. We project how geoengineering could impact malaria risk by comparing current transmission suitability and populations-at-risk under moderate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) with and without geoengineering. We show that if geoengineering deployment cools the tropics, it could help protect high elevation populations in eastern Africa from malaria encroachment, but could increase transmission in lowland sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia. Compared to extreme warming, we find that by 2070, geoengineering would nullify a projected reduction of nearly one billion people at risk of malaria. Our results indicate that geoengineering strategies designed to offset warming are not guaranteed to unilaterally improve health outcomes, and could produce regional trade-offs among Global South countries that are often excluded from geoengineering conversations.
Solar geoengineering is often framed as a stopgap measure to decrease the magnitude, impacts, and injustice of climate change. However, the benefits or costs of geoengineering for human health are largely unknown. We project how geoengineering could impact malaria risk by comparing current transmission suitability and populations-at-risk under moderate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) with and without geoengineering. We show that if geoengineering deployment cools the tropics, it could help protect high elevation populations in eastern Africa from malaria encroachment, but could increase transmission in lowland sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia. Compared to extreme warming, we find that by 2070, geoengineering would nullify a projected reduction of nearly one billion people at risk of malaria. Our results indicate that geoengineering strategies designed to offset warming are not guaranteed to unilaterally improve health outcomes, and could produce regional trade-offs among Global South countries that are often excluded from geoengineering conversations. Solar geoengineering, an emergency climate intervention, could shift one billion people back into areas of malaria risk. Regional tradeoffs and potential adverse outcomes point to the need for health sector planning with Global South leadership.
ArticleNumber 2150
Author Carlson, Colin J.
Alam, Mohammad Shafiul
Colwell, Rita
Ryan, Sadie J.
Hossain, Mohammad Sharif
Rahman, Mohammed Mofizur
Robock, Alan
Trisos, Christopher H.
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  organization: Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Georgetown University Medical Center, Center for Global Health Science and Security, Georgetown University Medical Center
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  surname: Hossain
  fullname: Hossain, Mohammad Sharif
  organization: Infectious Diseases Division, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b)
– sequence: 4
  givenname: Mohammed Mofizur
  surname: Rahman
  fullname: Rahman, Mohammed Mofizur
  organization: Institute for Technology and Resources Management in the Tropics and Subtropics, Cologne University of Applied Sciences
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  surname: Ryan
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  organization: Quantitative Disease Ecology and Conservation (QDEC) Lab Group, Department of Geography, University of Florida, Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal
– sequence: 7
  givenname: Mohammad Shafiul
  surname: Alam
  fullname: Alam, Mohammad Shafiul
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  surname: Trisos
  fullname: Trisos, Christopher H.
  email: christopher.trisos@uct.ac.za
  organization: African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Centre for Statistics in Ecology, the Environment and Conservation, University of Cape Town
BackLink https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35444178$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed
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Snippet Solar geoengineering is often framed as a stopgap measure to decrease the magnitude, impacts, and injustice of climate change. However, the benefits or costs...
Solar geoengineering, an emergency climate intervention, could shift one billion people back into areas of malaria risk. Regional tradeoffs and potential...
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SubjectTerms 692/699/255/1629
704/106/694/2739/2807
704/106/694/2786
Africa, Eastern
Climate Change
Developing Countries
Disease transmission
Emissions
Encroachment
Geoengineering
Greenhouse effect
Greenhouse gases
Health risks
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
LDCs
Leadership
Malaria
Malaria - epidemiology
Malaria - prevention & control
multidisciplinary
Populations
Risk
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Southern Hemisphere
Sunlight - adverse effects
Tropical environments
Vector-borne diseases
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Title Solar geoengineering could redistribute malaria risk in developing countries
URI https://link.springer.com/article/10.1038/s41467-022-29613-w
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35444178
https://www.proquest.com/docview/2652730293
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https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/PMC9021229
https://doaj.org/article/8c2e3ad4c28c4f6983a8cbab76e12da1
Volume 13
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