Solar geoengineering could redistribute malaria risk in developing countries

• Published in: Nature communications Vol. 13; no. 1; p. 2150
• Main Authors: Carlson, Colin J., Colwell, Rita, Hossain, Mohammad Sharif, Rahman, Mohammed Mofizur, Robock, Alan, Ryan, Sadie J., Alam, Mohammad Shafiul, Trisos, Christopher H.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 20.04.2022; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: 692/699/255/1629; 704/106/694/2739/2807; 704/106/694/2786; Africa, Eastern; Climate Change; Developing Countries; Disease transmission; Emissions; Encroachment; Geoengineering; Greenhouse effect; Greenhouse gases; Health risks; Humanities and Social Sciences; Humans; LDCs; Leadership; Malaria; Malaria - epidemiology; Malaria - prevention & control; multidisciplinary; Populations; Risk; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Southern Hemisphere; Sunlight - adverse effects; Tropical environments; Vector-borne diseases; Africa, Eastern; Africa
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-29613-w

Solar geoengineering is often framed as a stopgap measure to decrease the magnitude, impacts, and injustice of climate change. However, the benefits or costs of geoengineering for human health are largely unknown. We project how geoengineering could impact malaria risk by comparing current transmission suitability and populations-at-risk under moderate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) with and without geoengineering. We show that if geoengineering deployment cools the tropics, it could help protect high elevation populations in eastern Africa from malaria encroachment, but could increase transmission in lowland sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia. Compared to extreme warming, we find that by 2070, geoengineering would nullify a projected reduction of nearly one billion people at risk of malaria. Our results indicate that geoengineering strategies designed to offset warming are not guaranteed to unilaterally improve health outcomes, and could produce regional trade-offs among Global South countries that are often excluded from geoengineering conversations. Solar geoengineering, an emergency climate intervention, could shift one billion people back into areas of malaria risk. Regional tradeoffs and potential adverse outcomes point to the need for health sector planning with Global South leadership.