Timing of emergence of modern rates of sea-level rise by 1863

• Published in: Nature communications Vol. 13; no. 1; p. 966
• Main Authors: Walker, Jennifer S., Kopp, Robert E., Little, Christopher M., Horton, Benjamin P.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 18.02.2022; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: 19th century; 704/106/413; 704/106/694; 704/106/829; Climate change; Estimates; Glaciers; Humanities and Social Sciences; multidisciplinary; Ocean temperature; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Sea level; Sea level rise; Trends; Variability
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-28564-6

Sea-level rise is a significant indicator of broader climate changes, and the time of emergence concept can be used to identify when modern rates of sea-level rise emerged above background variability. Yet a range of estimates of the timing persists both globally and regionally. Here, we use a global database of proxy sea-level records of the Common Era (0–2000 CE) and show that globally, it is very likely that rates of sea-level rise emerged above pre-industrial rates by 1863 CE ( P = 0.9; range of 1825 [ P = 0.66] to 1873 CE [ P = 0.95]), which is similar in timing to evidence for early ocean warming and glacier melt. The time of emergence in the North Atlantic reveals a distinct spatial pattern, appearing earliest in the mid-Atlantic region (1872–1894 CE) and later in Canada and Europe (1930–1964 CE). Regional and local sea-level changes occurring over different time periods drive the spatial pattern in emergence, suggesting regional processes underlie centennial-timescale sea-level variability over the Common Era. Sea-level rise is a significant indicator of climate changes and it is important to identify the time of emergence of modern rates of sea-level rise. Here the authors estimate that global sea-level rise emerged by 1863 and find spatial variability of emergence at sites within the North Atlantic.