Temperature-related mortality in China from specific injury

• Published in: Nature communications Vol. 14; no. 1; pp. 37 - 10
• Main Authors: Hu, Jianxiong, He, Guanhao, Meng, Ruilin, Gong, Weiwei, Ren, Zhoupeng, Shi, Heng, Lin, Ziqiang, Liu, Tao, Zeng, Fangfang, Yin, Peng, Bai, Guoxia, Qin, Mingfang, Hou, Zhulin, Dong, Xiaomei, Zhou, Chunliang, Pingcuo, Zhuoma, Xiao, Yize, Yu, Min, Huang, Biao, Xu, Xiaojun, Lin, Lifeng, Xiao, Jianpeng, Zhong, Jieming, Jin, Donghui, Zhao, Qinglong, Li, Yajie, Gama, Cangjue, Xu, Yiqing, Lv, Lingshuang, Zeng, Weilin, Li, Xing, Luo, Liying, Zhou, Maigeng, Huang, Cunrui, Ma, Wenjun
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 03.01.2023; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: 692/499; 704/106/694/2739/2807; China - epidemiology; Climate Change; Data collection; Fatalities; Forecasting; Hot Temperature; Humanities and Social Sciences; Humans; Injuries; Male; Mortality; Mortality risk; multidisciplinary; Public health; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Temperature; Temperature effects; China
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-35462-4

Injury poses heavy burden on public health, accounting for nearly 8% of all deaths globally, but little evidence on the role of climate change on injury exists. We collect data during 2013-2019 in six provinces of China to examine the effects of temperature on injury mortality, and to project future mortality burden attributable to temperature change driven by climate change based on the assumption of constant injury mortality and population scenario. The results show that a 0.50% (95% confident interval (CI): 0.13%–0.88%) increase of injury mortality risk for each 1 °C rise in daily temperature, with higher risk for intentional injury (1.13%, 0.55%–1.71%) than that for unintentional injury (0.40%, 0.04%–0.77%). Compared to the 2010s, total injury deaths attributable to temperature change in China would increase 156,586 (37,654–272,316) in the 2090 s under representative concentration pathways 8.5 scenario with the highest for transport injury (64,764, 8,517–115,743). Populations living in Western China, people aged 15–69 years, and male may suffer more injury mortality burden from increased temperature caused by climate change. Our findings may be informative for public health policy development to effectively adapt to climate change. Injury poses heavy burden on public health, but little evidence on the potential role of climate change on injury exists. Here, the authors collect data during 2013-2019 in six provinces of China to estimate the associations between temperature and injury mortality, and to project future mortality burden attributable to temperature change driven by climate change.