Cost increase in the electricity supply to achieve carbon neutrality in China

• Published in: Nature communications Vol. 13; no. 1; p. 3172
• Main Authors: Zhuo, Zhenyu, Du, Ershun, Zhang, Ning, Nielsen, Chris P., Lu, Xi, Xiao, Jinyu, Wu, Jiawei, Kang, Chongqing
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 08.06.2022; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: 704/844/4066/4068; 704/844/4066/4076; 704/844/4066/4098; 704/844/843; Carbon; Carbon neutrality; Costs; Electricity; Energy costs; Humanities and Social Sciences; Investments; multidisciplinary; Photovoltaics; Renewable energy; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Security; Wind; China
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-30747-0

The Chinese government has set long-term carbon neutrality and renewable energy (RE) development goals for the power sector. Despite a precipitous decline in the costs of RE technologies, the external costs of renewable intermittency and the massive investments in new RE capacities would increase electricity costs. Here, we develop a power system expansion model to comprehensively evaluate changes in the electricity supply costs over a 30-year transition to carbon neutrality. RE supply curves, operating security constraints, and the characteristics of various generation units are modelled in detail to assess the cost variations accurately. According to our results, approximately 5.8 TW of wind and solar photovoltaic capacity would be required to achieve carbon neutrality in the power system by 2050. The electricity supply costs would increase by 9.6 CNY¢/kWh. The major cost shift would result from the substantial investments in RE capacities, flexible generation resources, and network expansion. This study indicates that approximately 5.8 TW of wind and solar photovoltaic capacity would be required to achieve carbon neutrality in China’s power system by 2050. The electricity supply costs would increase by 19.9% or 9.6 CNY¢/kWh.