China’s electric vehicle and climate ambitions jeopardized by surging critical material prices

The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) on a large scale is crucial for meeting the desired climate commitments, where affordability plays a vital role. However, the expected surge in prices of lithium, cobalt, nickel, and manganese, four critical materials in EV batteries, could hinder EV uptake. T...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published inNature communications Vol. 14; no. 1; pp. 1246 - 13
Main Authors Wang, Hetong, Feng, Kuishuang, Wang, Peng, Yang, Yuyao, Sun, Laixiang, Yang, Fan, Chen, Wei-Qiang, Zhang, Yiyi, Li, Jiashuo
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published London Nature Publishing Group UK 04.03.2023
Nature Publishing Group
Nature Portfolio
Subjects
704/172/4081
704/844/841
706/4066/4076
706/703/253
Carbon
Cobalt
Electric vehicles
Emissions
Humanities and Social Sciences
International cooperation
Lithium
Manganese
multidisciplinary
Nickel
Road transportation
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Strategic materials
Supply chains
China
Online AccessGet full text

Cover

More Information
Summary:The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) on a large scale is crucial for meeting the desired climate commitments, where affordability plays a vital role. However, the expected surge in prices of lithium, cobalt, nickel, and manganese, four critical materials in EV batteries, could hinder EV uptake. To explore these impacts in the context of China, the world’s largest EV market, we expand and enrich an integrated assessment model. We find that under a high material cost surge scenario, EVs would account for 35% (2030) and 51% (2060) of the total number of vehicles in China, significantly lower than 49% (2030) and 67% (2060) share in the base-line, leading to a 28% increase in cumulative carbon emissions (2020-2060) from road transportation. While material recycling and technical battery innovation are effective long-term countermeasures, securing the supply chains of critical materials through international cooperation is highly recommended, given geopolitical and environmental fragilities. Under a high-cost scenario for battery critical materials, the uptake of electric vehicles in China may be greatly reduced, leading to increased cumulative carbon emissions. This may jeopardize both China’s electric vehicle and climate targets.
Bibliography:ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-2
content type line 14
content type line 23
ISSN:2041-1723
2041-1723
DOI:10.1038/s41467-023-36957-4