Bayesian accrual prediction for interim review of clinical studies: open source R package and smartphone application

• Published in: Current controlled trials in cardiovascular medicine Vol. 17; no. 1; p. 336
• Main Authors: Jiang, Yu, Guarino, Peter, Ma, Shuangge, Simon, Steve, Mayo, Matthew S., Raghavan, Rama, Gajewski, Byron J.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London BioMed Central 22.07.2016; BioMed Central Ltd
• Subjects: Analysis; Approximation; Bayes Theorem; Bayesian statistical decision theory; Biomedicine; Clinical trials; Computer Graphics; Data Interpretation, Statistical; Freeware; Graphical user interface; Health Sciences; Humans; Java; Medical research; Medicine; Medicine & Public Health; Medicine, Experimental; Mobile Applications; Models, Statistical; Multicenter Studies as Topic - methods; Multicenter Studies as Topic - statistics & numerical data; Patient Selection; Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic - methods; Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic - statistics & numerical data; Robotics; Sample Size; Smart phones; Smartphone; Smartphones; Software; Statistics for Life Sciences; Stroke - diagnosis; Stroke - physiopathology; Stroke - therapy; Stroke Rehabilitation - methods; Technology application; Time Factors; User interface; User-Computer Interface; United Kingdom; Smartphone application; Statistical software; Bayesian methods; Subject accrual
• ISSN: 1745-6215; 1745-6215
• DOI: 10.1186/s13063-016-1457-3

Background Subject recruitment for medical research is challenging. Slow patient accrual leads to increased costs and delays in treatment advances. Researchers need reliable tools to manage and predict the accrual rate. The previously developed Bayesian method integrates researchers’ experience on former trials and data from an ongoing study, providing a reliable prediction of accrual rate for clinical studies. Methods In this paper, we present a user-friendly graphical user interface program developed in R. A closed-form solution for the total subjects that can be recruited within a fixed time is derived. We also present a built-in Android system using Java for web browsers and mobile devices. Results Using the accrual software, we re-evaluated the Veteran Affairs Cooperative Studies Program 558— ROBOTICS study. The application of the software in monitoring and management of recruitment is illustrated for different stages of the trial. Conclusions This developed accrual software provides a more convenient platform for estimation and prediction of the accrual process.