Nottingham prognostic index plus (NPI+) predicts risk of distant metastases in primary breast cancer

• Published in: Breast cancer research and treatment Vol. 157; no. 1; pp. 65 - 75
• Main Authors: Green, Andrew R., Soria, D., Powe, D. G., Nolan, C. C., Aleskandarany, M., Szász, M. A., Tőkés, A. M., Ball, G. R., Garibaldi, J. M., Rakha, E. A., Kulka, J., Ellis, I. O.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York Springer US 01.05.2016; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Adult; Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Biomarkers, Tumor - metabolism; Breast cancer; Breast Neoplasms - metabolism; Breast Neoplasms - pathology; Cancer metastasis; Cancer patients; Cancer research; Cancer therapies; Classification; ErbB Receptors - metabolism; Female; Humans; Keratins - metabolism; Medical prognosis; Medical schools; Medicine; Medicine & Public Health; Metastasis; Middle Aged; Mucin-1 - metabolism; Neoplasm Metastasis; Oncology; Preclinical Study; Progesterone; Prognosis; Receptor, ErbB-2 - metabolism; Receptor, ErbB-3 - metabolism; Receptor, ErbB-4 - metabolism; Receptors, Estrogen - metabolism; Survival Analysis; Tumor proteins; Tumor Suppressor Protein p53 - metabolism; Clinical; Breast cancer; Molecular; Prognostic index; Outcome; Classification
• ISSN: 0167-6806; 1573-7217
• DOI: 10.1007/s10549-016-3804-1

The Nottingham prognostic index plus (NPI+) is based on the assessment of biological class combined with established clinicopathologic prognostic variables providing improved patient outcome stratification for breast cancer superior to the traditional NPI. This study aimed to determine prognostic capability of the NPI+ in predicting risk of development of distant disease. A well-characterised series of 1073 primary early-stage BC cases treated in Nottingham and 251 cases from Budapest were immunohistochemically assessed for cytokeratin (Ck)5/6, Ck18, EGFR, oestrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor, HER2, HER3, HER4, Mucin 1 and p53 expression. NPI+ biological class and prognostic scores were assigned using individual algorithms for each biological class incorporating clinicopathologic parameters and investigated in terms of prediction of distant metastases-free survival (MFS). The NPI+ identified distinct prognostic groups (PG) within each molecular class which were predictive of MFS providing improved patient outcome stratification superior to the traditional NPI. NPI+ PGs, between series, were comparable in predicting patient outcome between series in luminal A, basal p53 altered and HER2+/ER+ ( p  > 0.01) tumours. The low-risk groups were similarly validated in luminal B, luminal N, basal p53 normal tumours ( p  > 0.01). Due to small patient numbers the remaining PGs could not be validated. NPI+ was additionally able to predict a higher risk of metastases at certain distant sites. This study may indicate the NPI+ as a useful tool in predicting the risk of metastases. The NPI+ provides accurate risk stratification allowing improved individualised clinical decision making for breast cancer.