A risk score predicting new incidence of hypertension in Japan

• Published in: Journal of human hypertension Vol. 33; no. 10; pp. 748 - 755
• Main Authors: Kadomatsu, Yuka, Tsukamoto, Mineko, Sasakabe, Tae, Kawai, Sayo, Naito, Mariko, Kubo, Yoko, Okada, Rieko, Tamura, Takashi, Hishida, Asahi, Mori, Atsuyoshi, Hamajima, Nobuyuki, Yokoi, Kohei, Wakai, Kenji
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 01.10.2019; Nature Publishing Group
• Subjects: 692/499; 692/699/75/243; Adult; Analysis; Blood Pressure; Epidemiology; Health Administration; Health risk assessment; Humans; Hypertension; Hypertension - diagnosis; Hypertension - epidemiology; Hypertension - physiopathology; Incidence; Japan - epidemiology; Medicine; Medicine & Public Health; Middle Aged; Predictive Value of Tests; Public Health; Reproducibility of Results; Risk Assessment; Risk Factors; Japan
• ISSN: 0950-9240; 1476-5527; 1476-5527
• DOI: 10.1038/s41371-019-0226-7

The prevention of hypertension starts with the awareness of risk. Our aim was to construct a simple and well-validated risk model for nonhypertensive people in Japan consisting of basic clinical variables, using a dataset for two areas derived from the Japan Multi-Institutional Collaborative Cohort Study. We constructed a continuous-value model using data on 5105 subjects participating in both the baseline survey and a second survey conducted after 5 years. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the Hosmer–Lemeshow χ 2 statistic for the entire cohort were 0.826 and 7.06, respectively. For validation, the entire cohort was randomly divided 100 times into derivation and validation sets at a ratio of 6:4. The summarized median AUC and the Hosmer–Lemeshow χ 2 statistic were 0.83 and 12.2, respectively. The AUC of a point-based model consisting of integer scores assigned to each variable was 0.826 and showed no difference, compared with the continuous-value model. This simple risk model may help the general population to assess their risks of new-onset hypertension.