Feeding nine billion: the challenge to sustainable crop production

• Published in: Journal of experimental botany Vol. 62; no. 15; pp. 5233 - 5239
• Main Authors: Gregory, Peter J., George, Timothy S.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford Oxford University Press 01.11.2011
• Subjects: Acid soils; Agricultural and farming systems; Agricultural land; Agricultural soils; Agriculture; Agronomy. Soil science and plant productions; Biological and medical sciences; Crop production; Crops, Agricultural; energy; Energy crops; Food crops; food prices; food production; Food security; Food Supply; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; General agroecology. Agricultural and farming systems. Agricultural development. Rural area planning. Landscaping; General agronomy. Plant production; Generalities. Agricultural and farming systems. Agricultural development; genotype; greenhouse gas emissions; markets; Models, Theoretical; phosphates; plant cultural practices; Plant physiology and development; Plant roots; Plants; Sustainable agriculture; water resources; P-use efficiency; food production; yield gaps; crop yield; Plant production; Sustainable agriculture; Nutrient recovery; Botany; Phosphorus; Food production; Yield; Feeding
• ISSN: 0022-0957; 1460-2431; 1460-2431
• DOI: 10.1093/jxb/err232

In the recent past there was a widespread working assumption in many countries that problems of food production had been solved, and that food security was largely a matter of distribution and access to be achieved principally by open markets. The events of 2008 challenged these assumptions, and made public a much wider debate about the costs of current food production practices to the environment and whether these could be sustained. As in the past 50 years, it is anticipated that future increases in crop production will be achieved largely by increasing yields per unit area rather than by increasing the area of cropped land. However, as yields have increased, so the ratio of photosynthetic energy captured to energy expended in crop production has decreased. This poses a considerable challenge: how to increase yield while simultaneously reducing energy consumption (allied to greenhouse gas emissions) and utilizing resources such as water and phosphate more efficiently. Given the timeframe in which the increased production has to be realized, most of the increase will need to come from crop genotypes that are being bred now, together with known agronomic and management practices that are currently under-developed.