A forecast evaluation of capital investment in agriculture

A stochastic coefficients model developed by Swamy and Tinsley is used to forecast agricultural investment. In two sets of out-of-sample forecasts, one for 5 years, the other for 10 years, the Swamy-Tinsley stochastic coefficients model outperforms competing fixed and stochastic coefficients empiric...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inInternational journal of forecasting Vol. 6; no. 4; pp. 509 - 519
Main Authors Conway, Roger K., Hrubovcak, James, LeBlanc, Michael
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Amsterdam Elsevier B.V 01.01.1990
Elsevier
Elsevier Sequoia S.A
SeriesInternational Journal of Forecasting
Subjects
Agricultural investment
Agriculture
Capital investments
Economic forecasting
Economic models
Evaluation
Forecast
Stochastic coefficients
Stochastic models
Studies
Time series
Evaluation
Stochastic coefficients
Agricultural investment
Forecast
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Summary:A stochastic coefficients model developed by Swamy and Tinsley is used to forecast agricultural investment. In two sets of out-of-sample forecasts, one for 5 years, the other for 10 years, the Swamy-Tinsley stochastic coefficients model outperforms competing fixed and stochastic coefficients empirical models of agricultural investment for a wide array of risk functions. The Swamy-Tinsley stochastic coefficients investment model forecasts continued declines in net investment for farm machinery, with greater declines toward the end of the forecast period. The Swamy-Tinsley method produced better predictions than both stochastic and fixed-coefficients competitors.
ISSN:0169-2070
1872-8200
DOI:10.1016/0169-2070(90)90029-B