Hotter and drier climate made the Mediterranean Europe and Northern Africa region a shrubbier landscape

• Published in: Oecologia Vol. 197; no. 4; pp. 1111 - 1126
• Main Authors: Fang, Wei, Yi, Chuixiang, Chen, Deliang, Xu, Peipei, Hendrey, George, Krakauer, Nir, Jensen, Katherine, Gao, Shan, Lin, Zihan, Lam, Gabriella, Zhang, Qin, Zhou, Tao
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01.12.2021; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Agricultural land; Barren lands; Biomedical and Life Sciences; Climate; Climate change; Climate drivers; Climate Research; Climatic conditions; Drought; Droughts; Ecology; GPP deficit; Grasslands; High temperature; Hydrology/Water Resources; Klimatforskning; LAI deficit; Land degradation; Landcover transition; Landscape; Leaf area; Leaf area index; Legacy effect; Life Sciences; Natural vegetation; Niches; Plant Sciences; Primary production; Savannahs; Shrublands; Shrubs; Special Issue: In Honor of Russell K. Monson; Structure-function relationships; Vegetation; Wetlands; Europe; North Africa; Africa; GPP deficit; Climate drivers; Landcover transition; LAI deficit; Legacy effect
• ISSN: 0029-8549; 1432-1939
• DOI: 10.1007/s00442-021-05041-3

A shift to higher temperatures has left the Mediterranean Europe and Northern Africa (MENA) region more vulnerable to drought and land degradation. We used MODIS LAI (leaf area index) and GPP (gross primary production) deficits, the differences between actual and historical-maximum values, to describe vegetation structural and functional changes and consequential landcover change in response to changing climate conditions during 2001–2019 in the area (20° W–45° E, 20° N–45° N). We found that 1) the vegetation responses varied significantly among eight landcover types with the decreasing importance: forests, savannas, a mosaic of cropland and natural vegetation (CNV), croplands, permanent wetlands, urban land, grasslands, and shrublands, each with distinctive yet overlapping signatures over the ranges of the climate conditions considered. 2) Forests, occupying the coolest and wettest niche, showed the strongest response to severe drought with a lag of 1–3 years and a legacy effect for 10 years. Shrubs, occupying the hottest and driest niche, were the most resilient under a hotter and drier climate. 3) The total areas of savannas and CNV increased by 394,994 and 404,592 km 2 , respectively, while that of forests decreased by 33,091 km 2 . Shrublands extended by 287,134 km 2 while grasslands and croplands retreated by 490,644 and 225,263 km 2 . The area of wetlands increased by 49,192 km 2 , and that of urban land increased by 39,570 km 2 . A total of 57,649 km 2 of barren land became vegetated over the years. Along with higher temperature and more extended period of drought, MENA has evolved towards a shrubbier landscape.