COVID-19 Epidemic Forecast in Brazil

This study advocates a novel spatio-temporal method for accurate prediction of COVID-19 epidemic occurrence probability at any time in any Brazil state of interest, and raw clinical observational data have been used. This article describes a novel bio-system reliability approach, particularly suitab...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inBioinformatics and biology insights Vol. 17; p. 11779322231161939
Main Authors Gaidai, Oleg, Xing, Yihan
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published London, England SAGE Publications 01.01.2023
Sage Publications Ltd
SAGE Publishing
Subjects
COVID-19
Epidemics
Original
Outbreaks
Public health
System reliability
Viral diseases
Brazil
COVID-19
epidemic outbreak
mathematical biology
probability forecast
public health
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Summary:This study advocates a novel spatio-temporal method for accurate prediction of COVID-19 epidemic occurrence probability at any time in any Brazil state of interest, and raw clinical observational data have been used. This article describes a novel bio-system reliability approach, particularly suitable for multi-regional environmental and health systems, observed over a sufficient time period, resulting in robust long-term forecast of the virus outbreak probability. COVID-19 daily numbers of recorded patients in all affected Brazil states were taken into account. This work aimed to benchmark novel state-of-the-art methods, making it possible to analyse dynamically observed patient numbers while taking into account relevant regional mapping. Advocated approach may help to monitor and predict possible future epidemic outbreaks within a large variety of multi-regional biological systems. Suggested methodology may be used in various modern public health applications, efficiently using their clinical survey data.
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ISSN:1177-9322
1177-9322
DOI:10.1177/11779322231161939