Impacts of different radiation schemes on the prediction of solar radiation and photovoltaic power

• Published in: Atmospheric and oceanic science letters = Daqi-he-haiyang-kexue-kuaibao Vol. 10; no. 6; pp. 446 - 451
• Main Authors: CHEN, Wei-Dong, CUI, Fang, ZHOU, Hai, DING, Huang, LI, Deng-Xuan
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Beijing Taylor & Francis 02.11.2017; KeAi Publishing Communications Ltd; China Electric Power Research Institute, Nanjing, China; KeAi Communications Co., Ltd
• Subjects: Numerical simulation; Parameterization; Photovoltaic cells; photovoltaic power forecasting; Photovoltaics; radiation scheme; Simulation; Solar energy; Solar power; Solar radiation; 光伏功率预测; 数值模拟; 数值模拟;辐射方案;光伏功率预测; 辐射方案; Numerical simulation; radiation scheme; 辐射方案; 数值模拟; 光伏功率预测; photovoltaic power forecasting
• ISSN: 1674-2834; 2376-6123
• DOI: 10.1080/16742834.2017.1394780

光伏发电系统的输出功率很大程度上取决于光伏面板所能接收到的太阳辐射量,到达地面的太阳辐射能量又受辐射传输过程影响。然而在工程实践中,数值模拟预报方案往往只采用一种辐射方案,导致太能辐射量和光伏发电功率的预测常不能满足预测精度。本文利用NCEP-NCAR的再分析数据作为初始场,以新疆区域为例选用多种辐射参数化方案进行组合模拟。通过算例分析后发现:不同的辐射参数化方案模拟结果差别很大,总辐射和预测功率的绝对误差分别为106.67 W m-2 and 3.5 MW。总辐射的平均绝对百分比误差范围为8.6%~17.3%,预测功率的平均绝对百分比误差范围为11.3%~20.2%。分析多种辐射参数化方案的模拟结果发现:RRTM/Dudhia和CAM辐射方案适合于晴天模拟