Estimation of breeding population size using DNA‐based pedigree reconstruction in brown bears

• Published in: Ecology and evolution Vol. 12; no. 9; pp. e9246 - n/a
• Main Authors: Shimozuru, Michito, Jimbo, Mina, Adachi, Keisuke, Kawamura, Kei, Shirane, Yuri, Umemura, Yoshihiro, Ishinazaka, Tsuyoshi, Nakanishi, Masanao, Kiyonari, Mayu, Yamanaka, Masami, Amagai, Yukihiro, Ijuin, Ayaho, Sakiyama, Tomoki, Kasai, Shinsuke, Nose, Takane, Shirayanagi, Masataka, Tsuruga, Hifumi, Mano, Tsutomu, Tsubota, Toshio, Fukasawa, Keita, Uno, Hiroyuki
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Bognor Regis John Wiley & Sons, Inc 01.09.2022; John Wiley and Sons Inc
• Subjects: Adults; Animal populations; Bears; Biodiversity; Breeding; breeding population size; brown bear; Conservation Genetics; Deoxyribonucleic acid; DNA; Endangered & extinct species; Environmental protection; Estimates; Feces; Females; Geographic information systems; Males; Methods; microsatellite analysis; National parks; Paternity; Pedigree; pedigree reconstruction; Population; Population density; Population Ecology; population estimate; Population Genetics; Population number; Reconstruction; Sampling; Topography; Trends; Ursus arctos; Wildlife conservation; Wildlife management; Japan
• ISSN: 2045-7758; 2045-7758
• DOI: 10.1002/ece3.9246

Robust estimates of demographic parameters are critical for effective wildlife conservation and management but are difficult to obtain for elusive species. We estimated the breeding and adult population sizes, as well as the minimum population size, in a high‐density brown bear population on the Shiretoko Peninsula, in Hokkaido, Japan, using DNA‐based pedigree reconstruction. A total of 1288 individuals, collected in and around the Shiretoko Peninsula between 1998 and 2020, were genotyped at 21 microsatellite loci. Among them, 499 individuals were identified by intensive genetic sampling conducted in two consecutive years (2019 and 2020) mainly by noninvasive methods (e.g., hair and fecal DNA). Among them, both parents were assigned for 330 bears, and either maternity or paternity was assigned to 47 and 76 individuals, respectively. The subsequent pedigree reconstruction indicated a range of breeding and adult (≥4 years old) population sizes: 128–173 for female breeders and 66–91 male breeders, and 155–200 for female adults and 84–109 male adults. The minimum population size was estimated to be 449 (252 females and 197 males) in 2019. Long‐term continuous genetic sampling prior to a short‐term intensive survey would enable parentage to be identified in a population with a high probability, thus enabling reliable estimates of breeding population size for elusive species. This study estimated the breeding and adult population sizes, as well as the minimum population size, in a high‐density brown bear population on the Shiretoko Peninsula, in Hokkaido, Japan, using DNA‐based pedigree reconstruction. This study showed that combination of a short‐term intensive genetic survey and long‐term continuous genetic sampling prior to it enables parentage to be identified in a population with a high probability, thus enabling reliable estimates of breeding population size for elusive species.