A crash programme scenario for the Canadian oil sands industry

• Published in: Energy policy Vol. 35; no. 3; pp. 1931 - 1947
• Main Authors: Söderbergh, Bengt, Robelius, Fredrik, Aleklett, Kjell
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford Elsevier Ltd 01.03.2007; Elsevier; Elsevier Science Ltd
• Series: Energy Policy
• Subjects: Applied sciences; Canada; Consumption; Crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products; Economic data; Energy; Energy economics; Energy policy; Exact sciences and technology; Fossil fuels and derived products; Fuels; Fysik; General, economic and professional studies; Natural gas; NATURAL SCIENCES; NATURVETENSKAP; Oil; Oil sands; Peak oil; Physics; Production; Prospecting and production of crude oil, natural gas, oil shales and tar sands; Studies; Canada; North America; America; Peak oil; Canada; Oil sands; Short term; Demand; Reserve; Carbon dioxide; Pollutant emission; Long term; Bitumen; Exploitation; Technology; Environment impact; Technicoeconomic study; Production; Feasibility; Production capacity; Medium term; Oil economy; Natural gas; Investment; Tar sand
• ISSN: 0301-4215; 1873-6777; 1873-6777
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2006.06.007

The report Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management, by Robert L. Hirsch et al., concludes that Peak Oil is going to happen and that worldwide large-scale mitigation efforts are necessary to avoid its possible devastating effects for the world economy. These efforts include accelerated production, referred to as crash programme production, from Canada's oil sands. The objective of this article is to investigate and analyse what production levels that might be reasonable to expect from a crash programme for the Canadian oil sands industry, within the time frame 2006–2018 and 2006–2050. The implementation of a crash programme for the Canadian oil sands industry is associated with serious difficulties. There is not a large enough supply of natural gas to support a future Canadian oil sands industry with today's dependence on natural gas. It is possible to use bitumen as fuel and for upgrading, although it seems to be incompatible with Canada's obligations under the Kyoto treaty. For practical long-term high production, Canada must construct nuclear facilities to generate energy for the in situ projects. Even in a very optimistic scenario Canada's oil sands will not prevent Peak Oil. A short-term crash programme from the Canadian oil sands industry achieves about 3.6 mb/d by 2018. A long-term crash programme results in a production of approximately 5 mb/d by 2030.