Real-time dynamic modelling for the design of a cluster-randomized phase 3 Ebola vaccine trial in Sierra Leone

• Published in: Vaccine Vol. 35; no. 4; pp. 544 - 551
• Main Authors: Camacho, A, Eggo, R.M, Goeyvaerts, N, Vandebosch, A, Mogg, R, Funk, S, Kucharski, A.J, Watson, C.H, Vangeneugden, T, Edmunds, W.J
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Netherlands Elsevier Ltd 23.01.2017; Elsevier Limited
• Subjects: Advisors; Allergy and Immunology; Clinical Trials, Phase III as Topic; Collaboration; Design; Disease Transmission, Infectious - prevention & control; Ebola vaccine; Ebola Vaccines - administration & dosage; Ebola Vaccines - immunology; Ebola virus; Ebolavirus; Epidemic; Epidemics; Funding; Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola - epidemiology; Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola - prevention & control; Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola - transmission; Heterogeneity; Humans; Incidence; Infections; Mathematical models; Models, Statistical; Phase 3; R&D; Research & development; Sierra Leone - epidemiology; Simulation; Transmission modelling; Trial design; Vaccines; Sierra Leone; Africa; Transmission modelling; Epidemic; Phase 3; Collaboration; Ebola vaccine; Trial design
• ISSN: 0264-410X; 1873-2518
• DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2016.12.019

Highlights • Phase 3 vaccine trials are challenging to design in epidemics, such as Ebola. • A mechanistic transmission model allowed more accurate estimation of declining incidence. • Mechanistic models can include change in incidence caused by the use of an effective vaccine. • Changes in likely trial feasibility were updated in real time as the epidemic progressed.