Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Surface Runoff in the Tarim River Basin over the Last Fifty Years

• Published in: Water resources management Vol. 22; no. 9; pp. 1159 - 1171
• Main Authors: Hao, Xingming, Chen, Yaning, Xu, Changchun, Li, Weihong
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Dordrecht : Springer Netherlands 01.09.2008; Springer Netherlands; Springer; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: anthropogenic activities; Arid zones; Atmospheric Sciences; Civil Engineering; Climate change; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Ecology; ecosystems; Environment; Environmental impact; Exact sciences and technology; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences; humans; Hydrogeology; Hydrology; Hydrology. Hydrogeology; Hydrology/Water Resources; Impact analysis; irrigated farming; population growth; Precipitation; Principal components analysis; Resource allocation; River basins; Rivers; Runoff; Socioeconomic factors; Studies; Surface runoff; Tarim River Basin; Trends; water allocation; Water resources; watersheds; Xinjiang China; Far East; Asia; China; Tarim Basin; Human activities; Climate change; Surface runoff; Tarim River Basin; agriculture; rivers; water resources; ecosystems; water resource management; runoff; human activity; climate change
• ISSN: 0920-4741; 1573-1650
• DOI: 10.1007/s11269-007-9218-4

The impacts of climate change and human activities on the surface runoff were analyzed by the Mann-Kendall and trend analysis methods based on the hydrological, meteorological and socioeconomic data over the last 50 years in the Tarim River basin. Results show that the runoff in the headstreams increased but that in the mainstreams decreased significantly during the past 50 years. The former is a response to climate change, and the later is due to human activities. The surface runoff in the mainstreams decreased by 41.59, 63.77 and 75.15% in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, respectively, as compared to that without being disturbed by human activities in the same period. The main human activities are the irrigated agriculture combined with population increase in the region. As a consequence, the ecosystem in the lower reaches of Tarim River has degenerated, largely owing to inappropriate allocation of water resources.