Phenological plasticity will not help all species adapt to climate change

Concerns are rising about the capacity of species to adapt quickly enough to climate change. In long‐lived organisms such as trees, genetic adaptation is slow, and how much phenotypic plasticity can help them cope with climate change remains largely unknown. Here, we assess whether, where and when p...

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Published inGlobal change biology Vol. 21; no. 8; pp. 3062 - 3073
Main Authors Duputié, Anne, Rutschmann, Alexis, Ronce, Ophélie, Chuine, Isabelle
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published England Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.08.2015
Wiley
Subjects
Adaptation
Adaptation, Physiological
Climate
Climate Change
climatic niche
Europe
European beech
Fagus - physiology
Genetics
Life Sciences
Models, Biological
Phenology
Phenotype
Pinus - physiology
Populations and Evolution
Quercus - physiology
Scots pine
Seasons
sessile oak
species distribution model
Europe
Scots pine
climatic niche
phenology
European beech
species distribution model
sessile oak
climate change
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Summary:Concerns are rising about the capacity of species to adapt quickly enough to climate change. In long‐lived organisms such as trees, genetic adaptation is slow, and how much phenotypic plasticity can help them cope with climate change remains largely unknown. Here, we assess whether, where and when phenological plasticity is and will be adaptive in three major European tree species. We use a process‐based species distribution model, parameterized with extensive ecological data, and manipulate plasticity to suppress phenological variations due to interannual, geographical and trend climate variability, under current and projected climatic conditions. We show that phenological plasticity is not always adaptive and mostly affects fitness at the margins of the species' distribution and climatic niche. Under current climatic conditions, phenological plasticity constrains the northern range limit of oak and beech and the southern range limit of pine. Under future climatic conditions, phenological plasticity becomes strongly adaptive towards the trailing edges of beech and oak, but severely constrains the range and niche of pine. Our results call for caution when interpreting geographical variation in trait means as adaptive, and strongly point towards species distribution models explicitly taking phenotypic plasticity into account when forecasting species distribution under climate change scenarios.
Bibliography:ark:/67375/WNG-RJ5QZM7H-B
ANR MeCC - No. ANR-13-ADAP-006_02
istex:E8E9662F1C13928F22E7F0030D170D93415D34AB
ANR EVORANGE - No. ANR-09-PEXT-011
Section S1. The model Phenofit and its parameterization. Table S1. Parameters used in Phenofit (Fagus sylvatica and Quercus petraea). Table S2. Parameters used in Phenofit (Pinus sylvestris). Section S2. Model validation. Section S3. Supplementary figures and table Figure S1: Observed distribution and modelled fitness of the three species with treatment 0, under historical conditions. Figure S2. Fitness distribution maps of treatments were compared on a pixel-by-pixel basis in the geographical and niche space. Figure S3. Density of geographical pixels in the climatic space of Europe under historical and future conditions under both scenarios. Figure S4. As main text Fig.  but showing results for manipulation of spring events only. Figure S5. As main text Fig.  but showing results for manipulation of fall events only. Figure S6. Projected fitness in the 'plastic' treatment for the three species for 1981-2000, and 2081-2100, under the two greenhouse gas emission scenarios A1Fi and B2. Figure S7. As main text Fig.  but showing results for both scenarios. Figure S8. As main text Fig. , but under scenario B2. Figure S9. As main text Fig.  but showing results in the geographical space only. Figure S10. Leaf unfolding dates in the 'plastic' treatment for the current period, and factors limiting fitness. Figure S11. Predicted mean seed set of sessile oak (1950-2000) at a location in northeastern France (5°E, 49°N), for various imposed fixed dates of leaf unfolding and flowering. Table S3. Changes in climatic niche size and geographical range size due to various components of phenotypic plasticity under historical conditions and climatic scenarios A1Fi and B2.
ArticleID:GCB12914
ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-2
content type line 23
ISSN:1354-1013
1365-2486
DOI:10.1111/gcb.12914