Assessment of rice self-sufficiency in 2025 in eight African countries
Most African countries are far from self-sufficient in meeting their rice consumption; in eight countries the production: consumption ratio, ranged from 0.16 to 1.18 in 2012. We show that for the year 2025, with population growth, diet change and yield increase on existing land (intensification), co...
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| Published in | Global food security Vol. 5; pp. 39 - 49 |
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| Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Elsevier B.V
01.06.2015
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
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| Abstract | Most African countries are far from self-sufficient in meeting their rice consumption; in eight countries the production: consumption ratio, ranged from 0.16 to 1.18 in 2012. We show that for the year 2025, with population growth, diet change and yield increase on existing land (intensification), countries cannot become fully self-sufficient in rice. This implies that for the future, a mixture of area expansion and imports will be needed on top of yield gap closure. Further research is needed for identification of most suitable new land for rice area expansion and areas that should be protected.
•Current production: demand ratio ranges from 0.16 to 1.18 in eight countries.•Large yield gaps between potential and actual yields except for Egypt.•Trade-offs between area expansion and imports in 2025 quantified.•With current yield trends seven countries will remain dependent on imports and area expansion in 2025.•Trends in per capita consumption have great impact on projections. |
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| AbstractList | Most African countries are far from self-sufficient in meeting their rice consumption; in eight countries the production: consumption ratio, ranged from 0.16 to 1.18 in 2012. We show that for the year 2025, with population growth, diet change and yield increase on existing land (intensification), countries cannot become fully self-sufficient in rice. This implies that for the future, a mixture of area expansion and imports will be needed on top of yield gap closure. Further research is needed for identification of most suitable new land for rice area expansion and areas that should be protected. Most African countries are far from self-sufficient in meeting their rice consumption; in eight countries the production: consumption ratio, ranged from 0.16 to 1.18 in 2012. We show that for the year 2025, with population growth, diet change and yield increase on existing land (intensification), countries cannot become fully self-sufficient in rice. This implies that for the future, a mixture of area expansion and imports will be needed on top of yield gap closure. Further research is needed for identification of most suitable new land for rice area expansion and areas that should be protected. •Current production: demand ratio ranges from 0.16 to 1.18 in eight countries.•Large yield gaps between potential and actual yields except for Egypt.•Trade-offs between area expansion and imports in 2025 quantified.•With current yield trends seven countries will remain dependent on imports and area expansion in 2025.•Trends in per capita consumption have great impact on projections. |
| Author | Tanaka, A. van Ittersum, M.K. van Oort, P.A.J. de Groot, H. Van Bussel, L.G.J. Cassman, K.G. van Wart, J. Amovin-Assagba, E. Saito, K. Wopereis, M.C.S. |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: P.A.J. surname: van Oort fullname: van Oort, P.A.J. email: pepijn.vanoort@wur.nl organization: Africa Rice Center, 01 BP 2031, Cotonou, Benin – sequence: 2 givenname: K. surname: Saito fullname: Saito, K. organization: Africa Rice Center, 01 BP 2031, Cotonou, Benin – sequence: 3 givenname: A. surname: Tanaka fullname: Tanaka, A. organization: Africa Rice Center, 01 BP 2031, Cotonou, Benin – sequence: 4 givenname: E. surname: Amovin-Assagba fullname: Amovin-Assagba, E. organization: Africa Rice Center, 01 BP 2031, Cotonou, Benin – sequence: 5 givenname: L.G.J. surname: Van Bussel fullname: Van Bussel, L.G.J. organization: Plant Production Systems, Wageningen University, PO Box 430, NL-6700 AK Wageningen, Netherlands – sequence: 6 givenname: J. surname: van Wart fullname: van Wart, J. organization: Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska–Lincoln, 202 Keim Hall, Lincoln, NE 68583-0915, USA – sequence: 7 givenname: H. surname: de Groot fullname: de Groot, H. organization: WUR – Alterra – Earth Observation and Environmental Informatics, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands – sequence: 8 givenname: M.K. surname: van Ittersum fullname: van Ittersum, M.K. organization: Plant Production Systems, Wageningen University, PO Box 430, NL-6700 AK Wageningen, Netherlands – sequence: 9 givenname: K.G. surname: Cassman fullname: Cassman, K.G. organization: Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska–Lincoln, 202 Keim Hall, Lincoln, NE 68583-0915, USA – sequence: 10 givenname: M.C.S. surname: Wopereis fullname: Wopereis, M.C.S. organization: Africa Rice Center, 01 BP 2031, Cotonou, Benin |
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| Snippet | Most African countries are far from self-sufficient in meeting their rice consumption; in eight countries the production: consumption ratio, ranged from 0.16... |
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| SubjectTerms | Aardobservatie en omgevingsinformatica Africa Alterra - Earth informatics Centre for Crop Systems Analysis Earth Informatics Earth Observation and Environmental Informatics Food security Leerstoelgroep Plantaardige productiesystemen PE&RC Plant Production Systems Plantaardige Productiesystemen Population Rice Yield gap Yield potential |
| Title | Assessment of rice self-sufficiency in 2025 in eight African countries |
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