Assessment of rice self-sufficiency in 2025 in eight African countries

• Published in: Global food security Vol. 5; pp. 39 - 49
• Main Authors: van Oort, P.A.J., Saito, K., Tanaka, A., Amovin-Assagba, E., Van Bussel, L.G.J., van Wart, J., de Groot, H., van Ittersum, M.K., Cassman, K.G., Wopereis, M.C.S.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier B.V 01.06.2015
• Subjects: Aardobservatie en omgevingsinformatica; Africa; Alterra - Earth informatics; Centre for Crop Systems Analysis; Earth Informatics; Earth Observation and Environmental Informatics; Food security; Leerstoelgroep Plantaardige productiesystemen; PE&RC; Plant Production Systems; Plantaardige Productiesystemen; Population; Rice; Yield gap; Yield potential; Yield potential; Population; Yield gap; Food security; Africa; Rice
• ISSN: 2211-9124; 2211-9124
• DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2015.01.002

Most African countries are far from self-sufficient in meeting their rice consumption; in eight countries the production: consumption ratio, ranged from 0.16 to 1.18 in 2012. We show that for the year 2025, with population growth, diet change and yield increase on existing land (intensification), countries cannot become fully self-sufficient in rice. This implies that for the future, a mixture of area expansion and imports will be needed on top of yield gap closure. Further research is needed for identification of most suitable new land for rice area expansion and areas that should be protected. •Current production: demand ratio ranges from 0.16 to 1.18 in eight countries.•Large yield gaps between potential and actual yields except for Egypt.•Trade-offs between area expansion and imports in 2025 quantified.•With current yield trends seven countries will remain dependent on imports and area expansion in 2025.•Trends in per capita consumption have great impact on projections.