Assessment of climate change impact on the malaria vector Anopheles hyrcanus, West Nile disease, and incidence of melanoma in the Vojvodina Province (Serbia) using data from a regional climate model

• Published in: PloS one Vol. 15; no. 1; p. e0227679
• Main Authors: Mihailović, Dragutin T, Petrić, Dušan, Petrović, Tamaš, Hrnjaković-Cvjetković, Ivana, Djurdjevic, Vladimir, Nikolić-Đorić, Emilija, Arsenić, Ilija, Petrić, Mina, Mimić, Gordan, Ignjatović-Ćupina, Aleksandra
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Public Library of Science 01.01.2020; Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• Subjects: Animal health; Animals; Annual temperatures; Anopheles; Anopheles - metabolism; Anopheles - pathogenicity; Biology and life sciences; Climate Change; Climate models; Computer simulation; Culex - virology; Data collection; Data collections; Disease; Drug dosages; Earth Sciences; Ecological monitoring; Environmental assessment; Environmental impact; General circulation models; Greenhouse gases; Health risks; Humans; Incidence; Infectious diseases; Insect Vectors - virology; Malaria; Malaria - epidemiology; Medicine and health sciences; Melanoma; Melanoma - epidemiology; Mortality; Mosquito Vectors - virology; Mosquitoes; Ocean models; Overwintering; People and Places; Physics; Public health; Radiation; Regional climate models; Regional climates; Regression analysis; Regression models; Relative abundance; Relative humidity; Research and Analysis Methods; Sampling; Seasons; Serbia - epidemiology; Signal monitoring; Skin cancer; Spreading; Supervision; Temperature; U.V. radiation; Ultraviolet radiation; Vector-borne diseases; Vectors; Vectors (Biology); Veterinary medicine; Viruses; West Nile Fever - epidemiology; West Nile virus; Yugoslavia - epidemiology; Serbia; Yugoslavia; Belgium; Europe
• ISSN: 1932-6203; 1932-6203
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0227679

Motivated by the One Health paradigm, we found the expected changes in temperature and UV radiation (UVR) to be a common trigger for enhancing the risk that viruses, vectors, and diseases pose to human and animal health. We compared data from the mosquito field collections and medical studies with regional climate model projections to examine the impact of climate change on the spreading of one malaria vector, the circulation of West Nile virus (WNV), and the incidence of melanoma. We analysed data obtained from ten selected years of standardised mosquito vector sampling with 219 unique location-year combinations, and 10 years of melanoma incidence. Trends in the observed data were compared to the climatic variables obtained by the coupled regional Eta Belgrade University and Princeton Ocean Model for the period 1961-2015 using the A1B scenario, and the expected changes up to 2030 were presented. Spreading and relative abundance of Anopheles hyrcanus was positively correlated with the trend of the mean annual temperature. We anticipated a nearly twofold increase in the number of invaded sites up to 2030. The frequency of WNV detections in Culex pipiens was significantly correlated to overwintering temperature averages and seasonal relative humidity at the sampling sites. Regression model projects a twofold increase in the incidence of WNV positive Cx. pipiens for a rise of 0.5°C in overwintering TOctober-April temperatures. The projected increase of 56% in the number of days with Tmax ≥ 30°C (Hot Days-HD) and UVR doses (up to 1.2%) corresponds to an increasing trend in melanoma incidence. Simulations of the Pannonian countries climate anticipate warmer and drier conditions with possible dominance of temperature and number of HD over other ecological factors. These signal the importance of monitoring the changes to the preparedness of mitigating the risk of vector-borne diseases and melanoma.