Maybe Next Month? Temperature Shocks and Dynamic Adjustments in Birth Rates

• Published in: Demography Vol. 55; no. 4; pp. 1269 - 1293
• Main Authors: Barreca, Alan, Deschenes, Olivier, Guldi, Melanie
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York Population Association of America (Springer) 01.08.2018; Springer US; Duke University Press, NC & IL
• Subjects: Adolescent; Adult; Air conditioners; Air Conditioning; Birth; Birth rate; Birth Rate - trends; Births; Censuses; Childbirth & labor; Cold Temperature; Correlation analysis; Demography; Environmental Monitoring; Female; Fertility; Fertility - physiology; FERTILITY AND REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH; Geography; Health care; High temperature; Hot Temperature - adverse effects; Hot weather; Humans; Medicine/Public Health; Population Economics; Regression Analysis; Reproductive health; Seasons; Sexual behavior; Sexual Behavior - physiology; Social Sciences; Sociology; Summer; Temperature; Temperature effects; United States; Weather; Young Adult; United States; United States > US; Temperature; Birth rates; Fertility; Birth seasonality
• ISSN: 0070-3370; 1533-7790
• DOI: 10.1007/s13524-018-0690-7

We estimate the effects of temperature shocks on birth rates in the United States between 1931 and 2010. We find that days with a mean temperature above 80°F cause a large decline in birth rates 8 to 10 months later. Unlike prior studies, we demonstrate that the initial decline is followed by a partial rebound in births over the next few months, implying that populations mitigate some of the fertility cost by shifting conception month. This shift helps explain the observed peak in late-summer births in the United States. We also present new evidence that hot weather most likely harms fertility via reproductive health as opposed to sexual activity. Historical evidence suggests that air conditioning could be used to substantially offset the fertility costs of high temperatures.