Scenario analysis on future electricity supply and demand in Japan

• Published in: Energy (Oxford) Vol. 38; no. 1; pp. 376 - 385
• Main Authors: Zhang, Qi, Ishihara, Keiichi N., Mclellan, Benjamin C., Tezuka, Tetsuo
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 01.02.2012; Elsevier
• Subjects: Applied sciences; Carbon dioxide; Demand; development policy; Electricity; Electricity system; Energy; energy conservation; environmental impact; equations; Exact sciences and technology; greenhouse gas emissions; Japan; Marketing; Nuclear power; Penetration; Policies; power generation; Renewable energy; Scenario analysis; simulation models; supply balance; Supply-demand; wind power; Japan; Nuclear power; Scenario analysis; Electricity system; Renewable energy; Japan; Supply-demand
• ISSN: 0360-5442
• DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2011.11.046

Under continuing policies of CO2 emissions reduction, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system. The development plans for nuclear power and renewable energy - particularly solar and wind power - are being reconsidered in light of the Fukushima nuclear accident. To contribute to this, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios for 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development policies, and the maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued. On the other side of the equation, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering potential energy saving measures. The purpose of the study is to demonstrate quantitatively the technological, economic and environmental impacts of different supply policy selections and demand assumptions on future electricity systems. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input–output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix, CO2 emissions, and generation cost of the scenarios were inter-compared and analyzed. The penetration of renewable energy generation in a future electricity system in Japan, as well as its relationship with nuclear power share was uncovered. ► Scenario analysis is conducted on future electricity systems under different supply policies and demand assumptions. ► Scenario analysis is conducted using a input–output hour-by-hour simulation model for real-time demand-supply balance. ► The technological, economic and environmental impacts of supply policies and demand assumptions on future electricity systems are studied. ► The maximum penetration of renewable energy generation is pursued in the scenario analysis using the hour-by-hour simulation. ► The relationship between the penetration levels of renewable energy and nuclear power share is analyzed.