Domestic Discontent and the External Use of Force

Although the diversionary theory of international conflict is intuitively plausible and is supported by much anecdotal evidence, quantitative tests generally have failed to establish a systematic link between domestic political troubles and foreign policy adventurism. In this article we revise the d...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inThe Journal of conflict resolution Vol. 36; no. 1; pp. 25 - 52
Main Authors Morgan, T. Clifton, Bickers, Kenneth N.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published 2455 Teller Road, Newbury Park, CA 91320 Sage Publications 01.03.1992
SAGE Publications
University of Michigan, Department of Journalism
SAGE PUBLICATIONS, INC
Subjects
Conflict Resolution
Control variables
Discontent
Foreign policy
International hostility
International Relations
Leadership
Political conflict
Political partisanship
Politics
Presidents
Theory
War
War conflict
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Summary:Although the diversionary theory of international conflict is intuitively plausible and is supported by much anecdotal evidence, quantitative tests generally have failed to establish a systematic link between domestic political troubles and foreign policy adventurism. In this article we revise the diversionary theory. We argue that a state leader will treat an erosion of domestic support more seriously when it comes from within segments of society that are critical in the maintenance of the leader's ruling coalition than when it comes from other domestic groups. We also argue that diversionary behavior typically should involve actions short of war. The revised theory is tested for the United States over the period from 1953 to 1976. Multiple empirical techniques are used to analyze the relationship between the uses of external force by the United States and the level of support for the president among members of the president's party. The results provide strong support for the revised diversionary theory.
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ISSN:0022-0027
1552-8766
DOI:10.1177/0022002792036001002