Leprosy in Brazil in the 21st century: analysis of epidemiological and operational indicators using inflection point regression

• Published in: Anais brasileiros de dermatología Vol. 95; no. 6; pp. 743 - 747
• Main Authors: Souza, Carlos Dornels Freire de, Paiva, João Paulo Silva de, Leal, Thiago Cavalcanti, Urashima, Gabriel da Silva
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English; Portuguese
• Published: Spain Elsevier España, S.L.U 01.11.2020; Sociedade Brasileira de Dermatologia
• Subjects: Brazil - epidemiology; Child; DERMATOLOGY; Disabled Persons; Humans; Leprosy; Leprosy - diagnosis; Leprosy - epidemiology; Mycobacterium leprae; Prevalence; Time series studies; Tropical/Infectoparasitary Dermatology; Brazil; Leprosy; Mycobacterium leprae; Time series studies
• ISSN: 0365-0596; 1806-4841; 1806-4841
• DOI: 10.1016/j.abd.2019.09.031

The objective of this study was to analyze the trend of epidemiological and operational indicators of leprosy in Brazil, from 2001 to 2017. This was a time series study involving nine indicators. The inflection point regression model was used. Decreasing trends were observed for the following: general detection (−4.8%), children under 15 (−3.7%), prevalence (−7.0%), and grade 2/million inhabitants (−3.5%). The proportion of individuals with grade 2 disability showed an upward trend (2.0%) from 2001 as well as contacts examined from 2003 (5.0%). The proportions of cure and of individuals with a degree of disability assessed at the time of the diagnosis and the cure showed a stationary behavior. Although advances are noted, there are still challenges to be overcome.