Accuracy and efficiency in the U.S. Department of Energy's short-term supply forecasts

• Published in: Energy economics Vol. 30; no. 3; pp. 1192 - 1207
• Main Authors: Sanders, Dwight R., Manfredo, Mark R., Boris, Keith
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Amsterdam Elsevier B.V 01.05.2008; Elsevier Science; Elsevier; Elsevier Science Ltd
• Series: Energy Economics
• Subjects: Accuracy; Applied sciences; Bias; Coal; Economic data; Efficiency; Electricity; Energy; Energy economics; Energy supply; Exact sciences and technology; Forecast evaluation; Forecasts; General, economic and professional studies; Methodology. Modelling; Natural gas; Power supply; Studies; U.S. Department of Energy forecasts; U.S.A; United States > US; Forecast evaluation; U.S. Department of Energy forecasts; Energy supply; Short term; Performance evaluation; Methodology; Bias; Energy economy; Supply; Error; Forecasting; Petroleum; Accuracy; Electricity; Efficiency; Coal; Comparative study; Natural gas
• ISSN: 0140-9883; 1873-6181
• DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2007.01.011

One-step-ahead forecasts of quarterly crude oil, natural gas, electricity, and coal supplies are evaluated under two general approaches: accuracy-based measures and classification- or directional-based measures. Results suggest the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) supply forecasts for U.S. domestic energy products are generally more accurate than a naïve alternative. There is only limited evidence of bias and inefficiency in the forecasts; although there is some evidence of error repetition. Directional forecasts for supply changes are statistically better than random, but they generally do not outperform a naïve forecast.