A flood risk curve development for inundation disaster considering spatio-temporal rainfall distribution

• Published in: Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences Vol. 370; no. 370; pp. 57 - 62
• Main Authors: Tanaka, T., Tachikawa, Y., Yorozu, K.
• Format: Journal Article Conference Proceeding
• Language: English
• Published: Gottingen Copernicus GmbH 11.06.2015; Copernicus Publications
• Subjects: Annual; Annual rainfall; Climate change; Damage assessment; Dams; Disasters; Distribution; Distribution functions; Economic benefits; Economics; Environmental risk; Flood control; Flood damage; Flood management; Flood risk; Floods; Hydraulics; Kinematics; Maximum rainfall; Probability distribution; Probability distribution functions; Probability theory; Rain; Rainfall distribution; Rainfall runoff; Rainfall simulators; Rainfall-runoff relationships; Risk assessment; Risk management; River basins; Runoff; Simulation; Socioeconomic aspects; Uncertainty
• ISSN: 2199-899X; 2199-8981; 2199-899X
• DOI: 10.5194/piahs-370-57-2015

To manage flood disaster with an exceeding designed level, flood risk control based on appropriate risk assessment is essential. To make an integrated economic risk assessment by flood disaster, a flood risk curve, which is a relation between flood inundation damage and its exceedance probability, plays an important role. This research purposes a method to develop a flood risk curve by utilizing a probability distribution function of annual maximum rainfall through rainfall-runoff and inundation simulations so that risk assessment can consider climate and socio-economic changes. Among a variety of uncertainties, the method proposed in this study considered spatio-temporal rainfall distributions that have high uncertainty for damage estimation. The method was applied to the Yura-gawa river basin (1882 km2) in Japan; and the annual economic benefit of an existing dam in the basin was successfully quantified by comparing flood risk curves with/without the dam.