A catastrophic tropical drought kills hydraulically vulnerable tree species

• Published in: Global change biology Vol. 26; no. 5; pp. 3122 - 3133
• Main Authors: Powers, Jennifer S., Vargas G., German, Brodribb, Timothy J., Schwartz, Naomi B., Pérez‐Aviles, Daniel, Smith‐Martin, Chris M., Becknell, Justin M., Aureli, Filippo, Blanco, Roger, Calderón‐Morales, Erick, Calvo‐Alvarado, Julio C., Calvo‐Obando, Ana Julieta, Chavarría, María Marta, Carvajal‐Vanegas, Dorian, Jiménez‐Rodríguez, César D., Murillo Chacon, Evin, Schaffner, Colleen M., Werden, Leland K., Xu, Xiangtao, Medvigy, David
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.05.2020; Wiley-Blackwell
• Subjects: Climate change; Distribution patterns; Drought; Economics; El Nino; El Nino phenomena; extreme drought; hydraulic traits; Mortality; Probability theory; rainfall seasonality; Safety margins; Southern Oscillation; Species; Threatened species; tree mortality; Tropical climate; Tropical forests; rainfall seasonality; tree mortality; extreme drought; hydraulic traits
• ISSN: 1354-1013; 1365-2486
• DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15037

Drought‐related tree mortality is now a widespread phenomenon predicted to increase in magnitude with climate change. However, the patterns of which species and trees are most vulnerable to drought, and the underlying mechanisms have remained elusive, in part due to the lack of relevant data and difficulty of predicting the location of catastrophic drought years in advance. We used long‐term demographic records and extensive databases of functional traits and distribution patterns to understand the responses of 20–53 species to an extreme drought in a seasonally dry tropical forest in Costa Rica, which occurred during the 2015 El Niño Southern Oscillation event. Overall, species‐specific mortality rates during the drought ranged from 0% to 34%, and varied little as a function of tree size. By contrast, hydraulic safety margins correlated well with probability of mortality among species, while morphological or leaf economics spectrum traits did not. This firmly suggests hydraulic traits as targets for future research. We took advantage of an exceptionally strong El Niño‐related drought in 2015 to understand the effects on tree mortality in a diverse, seasonally dry tropical forest. Tree mortality rates differed widely among species, ranging from 0% to 34%, and varied little as a function of tree size. We correlated the mean mortality rates by species with a large number of potential explanatory variables and found that hydraulic safety margins correlated well with probability of mortality among species, while soft traits such as wood density did not. This firmly suggests hydraulic traits as targets for future research.