Tropical volcanism enhanced the East Asian summer monsoon during the last millennium

• Published in: Nature communications Vol. 13; no. 1; p. 3429
• Main Authors: Liu, Fei, Gao, Chaochao, Chai, Jing, Robock, Alan, Wang, Bin, Li, Jinbao, Zhang, Xu, Huang, Gang, Dong, Wenjie
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 14.06.2022; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: 704/106/694/2739; 704/242; Climate; El Nino; Empirical analysis; Humanities and Social Sciences; Hydrology; Moisture deficiency; Moisture effects; Monsoons; multidisciplinary; Precipitation; Rainfall; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Summer; Volcanic activity; Volcanic eruptions; Volcanoes; Wind; Winter
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-31108-7

Extreme East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall frequently induces floods that threaten millions of people, and has been generally attributed to internal climate variability. In contrast to the hydrological weakening theory of volcanic eruptions, here we present convergent empirical and modeling evidence for significant intensification of EASM rainfall in response to strong tropical volcanic eruptions. Our multi-proxy analyses show a significantly increased EASM in the first summer after tropical eruptions from 1470 AD to the present, and the more frequent occurrence of El Niños in the first boreal winter after eruptions is necessary for the enhanced EASM. Model simulation ensembles show that a volcano-induced El Niño and the associated stronger than non-volcanic El Niño warm pool air-sea interaction intensify EASM precipitation, overwhelming volcanic-induced moisture deficiency. This work sheds light on the intertwined relationship between external forcing and internal climate variability and potential flood disasters resulting from tropical volcanic eruptions. The probability of an El Niño in the winter after large tropical volcanic eruptions increases. When this happens, summer monsoon precipitation over East Asia is enhanced, overwhelming thermodynamic precipitation reduction from volcanic cooling.