model for risk‐based assessment of Phelipanche mutelii (branched broomrape) eradication in fields

• Published in: Weed research Vol. 52; no. 6; pp. 526 - 534
• Main Authors: PRIDER, J, CORRELL, R, WARREN, P
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford, UK Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.12.2012; Wiley-Blackwell
• Subjects: Biological and medical sciences; detection survey; eradication programme; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; Parasitic plants; Parasitic plants. Weeds; parasitic weed; Phytopathology. Animal pests. Plant and forest protection; risk; risk assessment; simulation models; South Australia; stochastic model; surveys; weeds; South Australia; Australia, South Australia; Orobanche; Branching; Stochastic model; eradication programme; Program; Risk analysis; Eradication; Modeling; Field; parasitic weed; Dicotyledones; Weed science; Angiospermae; Orobanchaceae; Spermatophyta; Detection; detection survey; Parasitic plant
• ISSN: 0043-1737; 1365-3180
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-3180.2012.00942.x

Prider J, Correll R & Warren P (2012). A model for risk‐based assessment of Phelipanche mutelii (branched broomrape) eradication in fields. Weed Research52, 526–534. SUMMARY: A method is required for evaluating the progress towards eradication for weeds that are difficult to detect and have a persistent seedbank. The objective of this study was to develop a risk assessment model for fields previously infected by the annual parasitic plant, Phelipanche mutelii (branched broomrape). We analysed presence/absence survey data for fields infested by P. mutelii to estimate the proportions of fields that will return a weed infestation at annual intervals after initial detection. Infested fields in South Australia are subject to quarantine and are the focus of a national weed eradication programme. The model predicted that after 12 years of absent surveys, the probability of a single field returning an infestation was 0.01, which declined to 0.001 after 20 years. These probabilities can be used by managers to assess the risk of declaring a field broomrape‐free after a given number of absent surveys. Simulation modelling reveals the first year following initial detection of the weed is crucial for control, as returning fields in this year have a large influence on the length of the eradication programme. It is predicted that complete eradication of the weed could occur in 38–62 years, with the lower limit achievable by maintaining low numbers of returning fields through effective control and containment.