Revisiting Electoral Volatility in Post-Communist Countries: New Data, New Results and New Approaches

• Published in: British journal of political science Vol. 44; no. 1; pp. 123 - 147
• Main Authors: Powell, Eleanor Neff, Tucker, Joshua A.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Cambridge, UK Cambridge University Press 01.01.2014
• Subjects: Alliances; Coding; Communism; Datasets; Democracy; Economic recovery; Elections; Electoral behaviour; Electoral College; Electoral districts; Memberships; Political parties; Political power; Political science; Political systems; Post-communist societies; Postcommunism; Postcommunist Societies; Presidential elections; Statistical significance; Volatility; Votes; Voting; Western Europe; Europe
• ISSN: 0007-1234; 1469-2112
• DOI: 10.1017/S0007123412000531

This article provides a detailed set of coding rules for disaggregating electoral volatility into two components: volatility caused by new party entry and old party exit, and volatility caused by vote switching across existing parties. After providing an overview of both types of volatility in post-communist countries, the causes of volatility are analysed using a larger dataset than those used in previous studies. The results are startling: most findings based on elections in post-communist countries included in previous studies disappear. Instead, entry and exit volatility is found to be largely a function of long-term economic recovery, and it becomes clear that very little is known about what causes ‘party switching’ volatility. As a robustness test of this latter result, the authors demonstrate that systematic explanations for party-switching volatility in Western Europe can indeed be found.