Predicting traffic flow using Bayesian networks

• Published in: Transportation research. Part B: methodological Vol. 42; no. 5; pp. 482 - 509
• Main Authors: Castillo, Enrique, Menéndez, José María, Sánchez-Cambronero, Santos
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 01.06.2008; Elsevier
• Series: Transportation Research Part B: Methodological
• Subjects: Applied sciences; Exact sciences and technology; Gaussian Bayesian networks; Ground, air and sea transportation, marine construction; Probability intervals; Traffic data updating; Transportation planning, management and economics; Gaussian Bayesian networks; Traffic data updating; Probability intervals; User; Gaussian network; Probability; Forecast model; Stochastic method; Equilibrium; Origin destination model; Traffic flow; Traffic assignment; Example; Bayes network; Application; Interval
• ISSN: 0191-2615; 1879-2367
• DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2007.10.003

This paper deals with the problem of predicting traffic flows and updating these predictions when information about OD pairs and/or link flows becomes available. To this end, a Bayesian network is built which is able to take into account the random character of the level of total mean flow and the variability of OD pair flows, together with the random violation of the balance equations for OD pairs and link flows due to extra incoming or exiting traffic at links or to measurement errors. Bayesian networks provide the joint density of all unobserved variables and in particular the corresponding conditional and marginal densities, which allow not only joint predictions, but also probability intervals. The influence of congested traffic can also be taken into consideration by combination of the traffic assignment rules (as SUE, for example) with the Bayesian network model proposed. Some examples illustrate the model and show its practical applicability.