Development of models for maximum and time variation of storm surges at the Tanshui estuary

• Published in: Natural hazards and earth system sciences Vol. 14; no. 9; pp. 2313 - 2320
• Main Authors: Tsai, C-P, You, C-Y
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Katlenburg-Lindau Copernicus GmbH 01.09.2014
• Subjects: Analysis; Artificial neural networks; Atmospheric models; Brackish; Estuaries; Estuarine environments; Mathematical models; Neural networks; Storm surges; Time series; Training; Typhoons; Weather; Weather forecasting; ISEW, Taiwan; ISEW, Taiwan, Taipei, Tanshui Estuary
• ISSN: 1684-9981; 1561-8633; 1684-9981
• DOI: 10.5194/nhess-14-2313-2014

In this study, artificial neural networks, including both multilayer perception and the radial basis function neural networks, are applied for modeling and forecasting the maximum and time variation of storm surges at the Tanshui estuary in Taiwan. The physical parameters, including both the local atmospheric pressure and the wind field factors, for finding the maximum storm surges, are first investigated based on the training of neural networks. Then neural network models for forecasting the time series of storm surges are accordingly developed using the major meteorological parameters with time variations. The time series of storm surges for six typhoons were used for training and testing the models, and data for three typhoons were used for model forecasting. The results show that both neural network models perform very well for the forecasting of the time variation of storm surges.