Mapping the spatial heterogeneity of global land use and land cover from 2020 to 2100 at a 1 km resolution

A fine global future land use/land cover (LULC) is critical for demonstrating the geographic heterogeneity of earth system dynamics and human-earth interaction. In this study, we produced a 1 km global future LULC dataset that takes into account future climate and socio-economic changes as well as t...

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Published inScientific data Vol. 10; no. 1; pp. 748 - 15
Main Authors Zhang, Tianyuan, Cheng, Changxiu, Wu, Xudong
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published London Nature Publishing Group UK 28.10.2023
Nature Publishing Group
Nature Portfolio
Subjects
704/106
704/172
Anthropogenic factors
Climate change
Climate effects
Data Descriptor
Datasets
Earth
Economic development
Economic factors
Economics
Heterogeneity
Humanities and Social Sciences
Land use
multidisciplinary
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Socioeconomic factors
Socioeconomics
Spatial discrimination
Spatial heterogeneity
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Summary:A fine global future land use/land cover (LULC) is critical for demonstrating the geographic heterogeneity of earth system dynamics and human-earth interaction. In this study, we produced a 1 km global future LULC dataset that takes into account future climate and socio-economic changes as well as the impact of simulated results of the former year on temporally adjacent periods. By incorporating the variations in climatic and socio-economic factors, we differentiated LULC suitability probabilities for historical and future periods across representative SSP-RCP scenarios. Then, by using an improved cellular automata model-PLUS to simulate the patch-level changes of various land classes, we iteratively downscaled water-basin-level LULC demands in various future scenarios to a spatial resolution of 1 km. Our dataset achieves a high degree of simulation accuracy (Kappa = 0.94, OA = 0.97, FoM = 0.10) and precisely captures the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of global LULC changes under the combined effects of climate change and socio-economic development. This robust and fine-scale LULC dataset provides valuable spatially-explicit information essential for earth system modeling and intricate dynamics between anthropogenic activities and the environment.
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ISSN:2052-4463
2052-4463
DOI:10.1038/s41597-023-02637-7