Decadal decrease in Los Angeles methane emissions is much smaller than bottom-up estimates

• Published in: Nature communications Vol. 14; no. 1; p. 5353
• Main Authors: Zeng, Zhao-Cheng, Pongetti, Thomas, Newman, Sally, Oda, Tomohiro, Gurney, Kevin, Palmer, Paul I., Yung, Yuk L., Sander, Stanley P.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 02.09.2023; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: 704/106/35; 704/106/35/824; Emission measurements; Emissions; Emissions control; Estimates; Greenhouse gases; Humanities and Social Sciences; Leakage; Megacities; Methane; multidisciplinary; Natural gas; Radiative forcing; Remote sensing; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Trends; Los Angeles California; United States > US
• ISSN: 2041-1723; 2041-1723
• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-40964-w

Methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, has a short atmospheric lifetime ( ~ 12 years), so that emissions reductions will have a rapid impact on climate forcing. In megacities such as Los Angeles (LA), natural gas (NG) leakage is the primary atmospheric methane source. The magnitudes and trends of fugitive NG emissions are largely unknown and need to be quantified to verify compliance with emission reduction targets. Here we use atmospheric remote sensing data to show that, in contrast to the observed global increase in methane emissions, LA area emissions decreased during 2011-2020 at a mean rate of (–1.57 ± 0.41) %/yr. However, the NG utility calculations indicate a much larger negative emissions trend of −5.8 %/yr. The large difference between top-down and bottom-up trends reflects the uncertainties in estimating the achieved emissions reductions. Actions taken in LA can be a blueprint for COP28 and future efforts to reduce methane emissions. Top down atmospheric measurements reveal a large difference between observed methane emissions and those reported from bottom up estimates of natural gas leakage for California.