Herd immunity under individual variation and reinfection

We study a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model considered by Aguas et al. (In: Herd immunity thresholds for SARS-CoV-2 estimated from unfolding epidemics, 2021), Gomes et al. (In: J Theor Biol. 540:111063, 2022) where individuals are assumed to differ in their susceptibility or expos...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inJournal of mathematical biology Vol. 85; no. 1; p. 2
Main Authors Montalbán, Antonio, Corder, Rodrigo M., Gomes, M. Gabriela M.
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01.07.2022
Springer Nature B.V
Subjects
Applications of Mathematics
Connectivity
Epidemics
Epidemiology
Exposure
Herd immunity
Heterogeneity
Immunity
Infections
Infectious diseases
Mathematical and Computational Biology
Mathematics
Mathematics and Statistics
Ordinary differential equations
Pathogens
Population
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Thresholds
Viral diseases
SEIR model
92D30
Herd immunity threshold
Individual variation
Selection
Effective reproduction number
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Summary:We study a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model considered by Aguas et al. (In: Herd immunity thresholds for SARS-CoV-2 estimated from unfolding epidemics, 2021), Gomes et al. (In: J Theor Biol. 540:111063, 2022) where individuals are assumed to differ in their susceptibility or exposure to infection. Under this heterogeneity assumption, epidemic growth is effectively suppressed when the percentage of the population having acquired immunity surpasses a critical level - the herd immunity threshold - that is lower than in homogeneous populations. We derive explicit formulas to calculate herd immunity thresholds and stable configurations, especially when susceptibility or exposure are gamma distributed, and explore extensions of the model.
Bibliography:ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
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ISSN:0303-6812
1432-1416
DOI:10.1007/s00285-022-01771-x