Future precipitation changes during summer in East Asia and model dependence in high-resolution MRI-AGCM experiments

Global warming experiments using high-resolution climate models are important for studying the impact of global warming on human society from region to region. Three different cumulus schemes (YS: Yoshimura, KF: Kain-Fritsch and AS: Arakawa-Schubert) in the high-resolution Meteorological Research In...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inHydrological Research Letters Vol. 11; no. 3; pp. 168 - 174
Main Author Ose, Tomoaki
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Japanese
Published Tokyo Japan Society of Hydrology and Water Resources (JSHWR) / Japanese Association of Groundwater Hydrology (JAGH) / Japanese Association of Hydrological Sciences (JAHS) / Japanese Society of Physical Hydrology (JSPH) 2017
Japan Science and Technology Agency
Subjects
Asian monsoons
Atmospheric models
Climate change
Climate models
Clouds
Computer simulation
Future precipitation
Global warming
Global warming effects
High resolution
Mean precipitation
Meteorological research
Monsoon circulation
Precipitation
Rainfall
Regional climates
Resolution
Summer
Vertical velocities
East Asia
Japan
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Summary:Global warming experiments using high-resolution climate models are important for studying the impact of global warming on human society from region to region. Three different cumulus schemes (YS: Yoshimura, KF: Kain-Fritsch and AS: Arakawa-Schubert) in the high-resolution Meteorological Research Institute AGCM have simulated slightly different future summer mean precipitation changes in East Asia, which are not negligible in the context of regional climate change. Specifically, 25-year mean June-July-August (JJA) average precipitation clearly decreases over eastern Japan, and tends to increase over northern Japan in YS. However, in KF and AS, decreases in precipitation are not significant over Japan, and an increase is clear from central China through southwestern Japan. Addtionally, the increase is extended over the Pacific side of Japan in KF.The above dependence of future changes in precipitation in East Asia on the scheme used is interpreted by comparing future changes in water and heat balances in the atmosphere. Among possible global warming effects, scheme dependence is attributed to different changes in mean vertical velocity associated with southward shift of the westerly jet over the northern Pacific and weakened Asian monsoon circulations over Eurasia.
ISSN:1882-3416
1882-3416
DOI:10.3178/hrl.11.168